Simulated effects of climate change, fragmentation, and inter-specific competition on tree species migration in northern Wisconsin, USA
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Climate Research. 36: 191-202.
The reproductive success, growth, and mortality rates of tree species in the northern United States will be differentially affected by projected climate change over the next century. As a consequence, the spatial distributions of tree species will expand or contract at differential rates. In addition, human fragmentation of the landscape may limit effective seed dispersal, and inter-specific competition may limit the migration of climate-adapted species, restraining the rate of tree species migration. If the northward migration of tree species adapted to a warmer climate lags behind the rate of climatic change, overall growth rates and aboveground biomass of northern forests may be significantly reduced relative to their potential. We used a spatially interactive forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, that simulates tree species establishment, growth, mortality, succession, and disturbance.
Keywordsclimate change forest fragmentation interspecific competition carbon storage LANDIS-II tree species range expansion tree species migration
Scheller, Robert M.; Mladenoff, David J. 2008. Simulated effects of climate change, fragmentation, and inter-specific competition on tree species migration in northern Wisconsin, USA. Climate Research. 36: 191-202.