Publication Details

An uncertain economic future for the United States

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Olson, Robert L.

Year Published

2020

Publication

In: Dockry, Michael J.; Bengston, David N.; Westphal, Lynne M., comps. 2020. Drivers of change in U.S. forests and forestry over the next 20 years. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-197.

Abstract

There is extraordinary uncertainty about how the U.S. economy will perform over the next two decades because so many of the variables that affect the economy are in flux. As a result, 20-year forecasts are highly problematic and a more responsible approach is to consider alternative forecasts of how economic conditions could evolve. This essay sets out scenarios that represent some of the main views held by economists and other informed professionals and leaders. Each view is plausible and there is no "right" view on which to base decisions. The better approach is to be prepared to make the best of whatever circumstances emerge by thinking in advance about what actions would be appropriate in each of them—and what actions would make sense no matter what the future holds.

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Citation

Olson, Robert L. 2020. An uncertain economic future for the United States. In: Dockry, Michael J.; Bengston, David N.; Westphal, Lynne M., comps. 2020. Drivers of change in U.S. forests and forestry over the next 20 years. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-197. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station: 16–25. https://doi.org/10.2737/NRS-GTR-P-197-paper3.

Last updated on: November 18, 2020