Publication Details

Chapter 16: PnET-Succession

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Year Published

2018

Publication

In: Scheller, Robert, ed. Forecasting forested landscapes: An introduction to LANDIS-II with exercises, 5th edition. Portland, OR: LANDIS-II Foundation. 16 p.

Abstract

Forest landscape models (FLMs) such as LANDIS are useful for projecting future forest dynamics because they account for most of the factors that structure forested ecosystems at landscape spatial and temporal scales, particularly disturbances (He 2008). Climate and atmospheric (i.e., global) changes are expected to impact forest dynamics and composition through direct effects such as growth, establishment, competition and mortality, and indirect effects such as altered climate-regulated natural disturbance regimes. FLMs have been designed to respond to system drivers using two fundamental approaches. (1) Mechanistic models are reductionist in that the mechanisms by which causes produce effects within a process are explicitly modeled. Model parameters typically have direct ecological meaning and can be measured in the real-world. (2) Phenomenological (sometimes called empirical or statistical) models take a more holistic approach where the causes of a process produce effects (phenomena) according to how the system has typically behaved in the past. That is, the effect of the process is predicted using various types of surrogates for the mechanism, thus mimicking the effect of the mechanism on the system, without modeling the mechanism itself. In reality, most FLMs (and most ecosystem models) are a hybrid of these two approaches.

Citation

Gustafson, Eric J., Brian R. Miranda. 2018. Chapter 16: PnET-Succession. In: Scheller, Robert, ed. Forecasting forested landscapes: An introduction to LANDIS-II with exercises, 5th edition. Portland, OR: LANDIS-II Foundation. 16 p.

Last updated on: September 30, 2019