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Climate-tree growth models in relation to long-term growth trends of white oak in Pennsylvania

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Davis, D. D.; Long, R. P.

Year Published

2003

Publication

In: Van Sambeek, J. W.; Dawson, Jeffery O.; Ponder Jr., Felix; Loewenstein, Edward F.; Fralish, James S., eds. Proceedings of the 13th Central Hardwood Forest Conference; Gen. Tech. Rep. NC-234. St. Paul, MN: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, North Central Research Station: 527-537

Abstract

We examined long-term growth trends of white oak by comparing tree-ring chronologies developed from an old-growth stand, where the average tree age was 222 years, with a second-growth stand where average tree age was 78 years. Evaluation of basal area growth trends suggested that an anomalous decrease in basal area increment trend occurred in both stands during the 1950s. To determine whether climatic factors could explain this decrease we developed conventional and ridge regression models based on step-wise selection of mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation variables for the period 1895 to 1940. The years from 1941 to 1950 were used for verification of developed models; only the ridge regression models produced verifiable models. All models failed to predict actual growth in the period from 1951 to 1980 for both stands. The inability to predict growth response in the more recent period may relate to a non-constant climatic response of white oak or to non-climatic factors such as air pollution or altered atmospheric CO2 concentrations that have affected tree growth-climate relationships.

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Citation

Davis, D. D.; Long, R. P. 2003. Climate-tree growth models in relation to long-term growth trends of white oak in Pennsylvania. In: Van Sambeek, J. W.; Dawson, Jeffery O.; Ponder Jr., Felix; Loewenstein, Edward F.; Fralish, James S., eds. Proceedings of the 13th Central Hardwood Forest Conference; Gen. Tech. Rep. NC-234. St. Paul, MN: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, North Central Research Station: 527-537

Last updated on: January 30, 2007