Reconciling estimates of the contemporary North American carbon balance among terrestrial biosphere models, atmospheric inversions, and a new approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange from inventory-based data
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Global Change Biology. 18: 1282-1299
We develop an approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using inventory-based information over North America (NA) for a recent 7-year period (ca. 2000-2006). The approach notably retains information on the spatial distribution of NEE, or the vertical exchange between land and atmosphere of all non-fossil fuel sources and sinks of CO2, while accounting for lateral transfers of forest and crop products as well as their eventual emissions. The total NEE estimate of a -327 ± 252 TgC yr-1 sink for NA was driven primarily by CO2 uptake in the Forest Lands sector (-248 TgC yr-1), largely in the Northwest and Southeast regions of the US, and in the Crop Lands sector (-297 TgC yr-1), predominantly in the Midwest US states. These sinks are counteracted by the carbon source estimated for the Other Lands sector (+218 TgC yr-1), where much of the forest and crop products are assumed to be returned to the atmosphere (through livestock and human consumption). The ecosystems of Mexico are estimated to be a small net source (+18 TgC yr-1) due to land use change between 1993 and 2002. We compare these inventory-based estimates with results from a suite of terrestrial biosphere and atmospheric inversion models, where the mean continental-scale NEE estimate for each ensemble is -511 TgC yr-1 and -931 TgC yr-1, respectively. In the modeling approaches, all sectors, including Other Lands, were generally estimated to be a carbon sink, driven in part by assumed CO2 fertilization and/or lack of consideration of carbon sources from disturbances and product emissions. Additional fluxes not measured by the inventories, although highly uncertain, could add an additional -239 TgC yr-1 to the inventory-based NA sink estimate, thus suggesting some convergence with the modeling approaches.
Keywordsagriculture carbon cycle climate change CO2 emissions CO2 sinks forests inventory modeling North America
Hayes, Daniel J.; Turner, David P.; Stinson, Graham; Mcguire, A. David; Wei, Yaxing; West, Tristram O.; Heath, Linda S.; Dejong, Bernardus; McConkey, Brian G.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Kurz, Werner A.; Jacobson, Andrew R.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Pan, Yude; Post, W. Mac; Cook, Robert B. 2012. Reconciling estimates of the contemporary North American carbon balance among terrestrial biosphere models, atmospheric inversions, and a new approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange from inventory-based data. Global Change Biology. 18:(4) 1282-1299. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02627.x.