Publication Details

Estimation of invasive probability of multiflora rose in the upper Midwest

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Year Published

2012

Publication

In: McWilliams, Will; Roesch, Francis A. eds. 2012. Monitoring Across Borders: 2010 Joint Meeting of the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Symposium and the Southern Mensurationists. e-Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-157. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station. 131-135.

Abstract

Multiflora rose (Rosa Multiflora Thunb.) (MFR) is widely spreading across the United States, with up to 38 states in the contiguous United States reporting the presence of this species. In this study, U.S. Forest Service, Northern Research Station Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data from the Upper Midwest states for the period of 2005-2006 were used to calculate MFR presence probability at the county level. The classification and regression tree technique is used to classify the counties into invasive stages based on the estimated presence probability and a map of invasive stages is obtained, which is helpful for forest managers to optimally allocate resources. A simultaneous autoregressive model (SAR) was used to identify the driving factors of the spread of MFR. The contiguous invasive stages indicated a strong invasive pattern in all directions, particularly southward and eastward. MFR presence shows a positive spatial autocorrelation and is negatively associated with latitude and county forest cover percentage. Our results suggest that the distribution of MFR is likely limited by its intolerance to extreme cold temperatures and anthropogenic disturbance (forest fragmentation and deforestation) plays an important role in the spread of MFR.

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Citation

Yu, Weiming; Fan, Zhaofei; Moser, W. K.; Hansen, M. H.; Nelson, M. D. 2012. Estimation of invasive probability of multiflora rose in the upper Midwest. In: McWilliams, Will; Roesch, Francis A. eds. 2012. Monitoring Across Borders: 2010 Joint Meeting of the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Symposium and the Southern Mensurationists. e-Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-157. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station. 131-135.

Last updated on: November 6, 2012