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Integrating forest growth and harvesting cost models to improve forest management planning

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Baumgras, J.E.; LeDoux, C.B.

Year Published

1991

Publication

In: McCormick, Larry H.; Gottschalk, Kurt W., eds. Proceedings, 8th Central Hardwood Forest Conference; 1991 March 4-6; University Park, PA. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-148. Radnor, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station: 120-131.

Abstract

Two methods of estimating harvesting revenue--reported stumpage prices - and delivered prices minus estimated harvesting and haul costs were compared by estimating entry cash flows and rotation net present value for three simulated even-aged forest management options that included 1 to 3 thinnings over a 90 year rotation. Revenue estimates derived from stumpage prices indicated that all thinnings were economically feasible and that net present value was maximized by initiating thinning at age 40. Revenue estimates derived from estimated harvesting costs and delivered prices revealed that thinning at age 40 yielded the lowest net present value due to high harvesting costs and negative first-entry cash flows. Stumpage-based revenue estimates also were very unstable and highly dependent upon the sawtimber utilization assumptions of the economic analysis. The results show that integrating harvesting cost models with growth-and-yield simulatars can provide more stable and reliable revenue estimates over the wide range of harvesting conditions required to evaluate forest management alternatives.

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Citation

Baumgras, J.E.; LeDoux, C.B. 1991. Integrating forest growth and harvesting cost models to improve forest management planning. In: McCormick, Larry H.; Gottschalk, Kurt W., eds. Proceedings, 8th Central Hardwood Forest Conference; 1991 March 4-6; University Park, PA. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-148. Radnor, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station: 120-131.

Last updated on: February 14, 2008