Change by Scenario for Vermont

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 5.9 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Vermont Northern
States
Vermont Population 642,556 956,246
48.8%
25.6%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 4,588,386
77.8% of total land area
4,321,548
73.2% of total land area
-5.8%
-6.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 4,486,830
76% of total land area
4,221,260
71.5% of total land area
-5.9%
-6.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Vermont

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 3,424,866,264 3,052,156,379
-10.9%
3,512,769,498
2.6%
Trees per Person 5,330 3,192
-40.1%
3,673
-31.1%
Volume (cu ft) 9,021,551,536 9,171,733,946
1.7%
7,229,622,081
-19.9%
Growth (cu ft/year) 192,000,000 88,000,000
-54.2%
170,000,000
-11.5%
Removals (cu ft/year) 105,000,000 91,000,000
-13.3%
352,000,000
235.2%
Growth to removal ratio 1.8 1.0
-47.1%
0.5
-73.6%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Vermont

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 127,665,260
35.5%
129,037,796
37.3%
1.1%
104,793,572
33.5%
-17.9%
Roots (metric ton) 25,567,351
7.1%
25,792,023
7.5%
0.9%
20,963,229
6.7%
-18.0%
Dead trees (metric ton) 24,637,289
6.9%
23,976,093
6.9%
-2.7%
22,417,498
7.2%
-9.0%
Forest floor (metric ton) 44,930,750
12.5%
43,563,029
12.6%
-3.0%
40,693,593
13.0%
-9.4%
Soil (metric ton) 136,373,584
38.0%
123,779,494
35.8%
-9.2%
123,528,904
39.5%
-9.4%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 359,174,234
100%
346,148,433
100%
-3.6%
312,396,796
100%
-13.0%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 5.9 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Vermont Northern
States
Vermont Population 655,452 1,080,315
64.8%
39.1%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 4,588,386
77.8% of total land area
4,400,447
74.6% of total land area
-4.1%
-5.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 4,486,830
76% of total land area
4,299,845
72.9% of total land area
-4.2%
-5.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Vermont

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 3,424,866,264 3,047,062,952
-11.0%
3,356,472,111
-2.0%
Trees per Person 5,225 2,821
-46.0%
3,107
-40.5%
Volume (cu ft) 9,021,551,536 9,630,267,550
6.7%
8,116,911,559
-10.0%
Growth (cu ft/year) 192,000,000 116,000,000
-39.6%
98,000,000
-49.0%
Removals (cu ft/year) 105,000,000 90,000,000
-14.3%
238,000,000
126.7%
Growth to removal ratio 1.8 1.3
-29.5%
0.4
-77.5%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Vermont

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 127,665,260
35.5%
134,848,260
37.6%
5.6%
118,213,857
35.3%
-7.4%
Roots (metric ton) 25,567,351
7.1%
26,878,235
7.5%
5.1%
23,568,408
7.0%
-7.8%
Dead trees (metric ton) 24,637,289
6.9%
24,790,981
6.9%
0.6%
23,373,022
7.0%
-5.1%
Forest floor (metric ton) 44,930,750
12.5%
45,667,216
12.7%
1.6%
43,814,908
13.1%
-2.5%
Soil (metric ton) 136,373,584
38.0%
126,003,787
35.2%
-7.6%
126,326,655
37.7%
-7.4%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 359,174,234
100%
358,188,478
100%
-0.3%
335,296,850
100%
-6.6%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 5.9 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Vermont Northern
States
Vermont Population 640,618 849,253
32.6%
11.9%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 4,588,386
77.8% of total land area
4,439,361
75.2% of total land area
-3.2%
-3.5%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 4,486,830
76% of total land area
4,338,526
73.5% of total land area
-3.3%
-3.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Vermont

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 3,424,866,264 3,144,729,581
-8.2%
3,230,786,220
-5.7%
Trees per Person 5,346 3,703
-30.7%
3,804
-28.8%
Volume (cu ft) 9,021,551,536 9,249,808,750
2.5%
9,288,032,809
3.0%
Growth (cu ft/year) 192,000,000 89,000,000
-53.6%
174,000,000
-9.4%
Removals (cu ft/year) 105,000,000 110,000,000
4.8%
184,000,000
75.2%
Growth to removal ratio 1.8 0.8
-55.8%
0.9
-48.3%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Vermont

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 127,665,260
35.5%
131,448,134
37.0%
3.0%
131,651,848
37.2%
3.1%
Roots (metric ton) 25,567,351
7.1%
26,147,359
7.4%
2.3%
26,296,971
7.4%
2.9%
Dead trees (metric ton) 24,637,289
6.9%
24,624,451
6.9%
-0.1%
24,669,727
7.0%
0.1%
Forest floor (metric ton) 44,930,750
12.5%
45,931,946
12.9%
2.2%
44,478,083
12.6%
-1.0%
Soil (metric ton) 136,373,584
38.0%
127,491,075
35.8%
-6.5%
126,760,668
35.8%
-7.0%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 359,174,234
100%
355,642,965
100%
-1.0%
353,857,297
100%
-1.5%

 Scenarios

There are six scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime.

Moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio)

High greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate gains in income

Low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption.

Harvest Regimes

-C
Scenario projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels
-BIO
Harvest will increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy production

Vermont Population by Scenario

Drivers of Forest Change

A large component of forest change will be the result of normal forest growth, aging, natural regeneration, and species succession. In addition, we expect that a range of external forces will also drive forest change:

  • Population increases will cause millions of acres of forest land to be converted to urban and other land uses.
  • Economic conditions will affect forest products consumption, production, and harvesting rates.
  • The spread of invasive species will exacerbate the effects of other disturbances on forest ecosystems.
  • Changes in population, economic activity, energy consumption, and energy production will affect future climate change.
  • Climate change will, in turn, affect dynamics within forested ecosystems, including patterns of vegetation growth and species succession.

Vermont Future Forest Attributes


Area of forestland for Vermont


Legend
A1B-C
A1B-BIO
A2-C
A2-BIO
B2-C
B2-BIO

Scenario 2020 2040 2060 % Change

Area of forestland under A1B-C in 2060



Rank State Value