Change by Scenario for Pennsylvania

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 28.7 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Pennsylvania Northern
States
Pennsylvania Population 12,554,772 15,235,897
21.4%
25.6%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 16,652,217
58% of total land area
15,043,791
52.4% of total land area
-9.7%
-6.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 16,096,505
56.1% of total land area
14,536,711
50.7% of total land area
-9.7%
-6.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Pennsylvania

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 8,142,016,158 7,006,015,683
-14.0%
6,354,246,866
-22.0%
Trees per Person 649 460
-29.1%
417
-35.7%
Volume (cu ft) 32,023,910,559 31,325,501,847
-2.2%
25,142,916,464
-21.5%
Growth (cu ft/year) 746,000,000 436,000,000
-41.6%
700,000,000
-6.2%
Removals (cu ft/year) 362,000,000 380,000,000
5.0%
1,226,000,000
238.7%
Growth to removal ratio 2.1 1.1
-44.3%
0.6
-72.3%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Pennsylvania

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 471,346,429
40.7%
447,015,010
41.6%
-5.2%
363,324,133
37.3%
-22.9%
Roots (metric ton) 91,642,151
7.9%
86,830,816
8.1%
-5.3%
70,515,933
7.2%
-23.1%
Dead trees (metric ton) 79,003,783
6.8%
74,197,339
6.9%
-6.1%
71,673,867
7.4%
-9.3%
Forest floor (metric ton) 101,406,109
8.7%
91,823,216
8.5%
-9.5%
89,311,861
9.2%
-11.9%
Soil (metric ton) 415,677,131
35.9%
375,961,738
34.9%
-9.6%
377,980,269
38.9%
-9.1%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 1,159,075,603
100%
1,075,828,120
100%
-7.2%
972,806,063
100%
-16.1%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 28.7 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Pennsylvania Northern
States
Pennsylvania Population 12,806,725 17,212,705
34.4%
39.1%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 16,652,217
58% of total land area
15,309,711
53.3% of total land area
-8.1%
-5.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 16,096,505
56.1% of total land area
14,796,141
51.6% of total land area
-8.1%
-5.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Pennsylvania

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 8,142,016,158 7,056,616,748
-13.3%
6,805,936,591
-16.4%
Trees per Person 636 410
-35.5%
395
-37.8%
Volume (cu ft) 32,023,910,559 32,030,765,704
0.0%
28,490,833,366
-11.0%
Growth (cu ft/year) 746,000,000 412,000,000
-44.8%
609,000,000
-18.4%
Removals (cu ft/year) 362,000,000 349,000,000
-3.6%
919,000,000
153.9%
Growth to removal ratio 2.1 1.2
-42.7%
0.7
-67.8%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Pennsylvania

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 471,346,429
40.7%
456,244,945
41.6%
-3.2%
408,594,967
39.4%
-13.3%
Roots (metric ton) 91,642,151
7.9%
88,618,986
8.1%
-3.3%
79,378,524
7.7%
-13.4%
Dead trees (metric ton) 79,003,783
6.8%
75,314,854
6.9%
-4.7%
73,255,774
7.1%
-7.3%
Forest floor (metric ton) 101,406,109
8.7%
93,260,047
8.5%
-8.0%
92,043,790
8.9%
-9.2%
Soil (metric ton) 415,677,131
35.9%
383,208,101
34.9%
-7.8%
383,466,477
37.0%
-7.7%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 1,159,075,603
100%
1,096,646,932
100%
-5.4%
1,036,739,532
100%
-10.6%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 28.7 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Pennsylvania Northern
States
Pennsylvania Population 12,516,901 13,531,154
8.1%
11.9%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 16,652,217
58% of total land area
15,863,525
55.3% of total land area
-4.7%
-3.5%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 16,096,505
56.1% of total land area
15,331,616
53.4% of total land area
-4.8%
-3.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Pennsylvania

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 8,142,016,158 7,218,335,655
-11.3%
7,068,260,577
-13.2%
Trees per Person 650 533
-18.0%
522
-19.7%
Volume (cu ft) 32,023,910,559 33,068,284,772
3.3%
30,720,439,943
-4.1%
Growth (cu ft/year) 746,000,000 362,000,000
-51.5%
581,000,000
-22.1%
Removals (cu ft/year) 362,000,000 324,000,000
-10.5%
718,000,000
98.3%
Growth to removal ratio 2.1 1.1
-45.8%
0.8
-60.7%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Pennsylvania

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 471,346,429
40.7%
471,586,820
41.7%
0.1%
438,009,506
40.0%
-7.1%
Roots (metric ton) 91,642,151
7.9%
91,603,874
8.1%
0.0%
85,078,560
7.8%
-7.2%
Dead trees (metric ton) 79,003,783
6.8%
77,554,613
6.9%
-1.8%
76,298,017
7.0%
-3.4%
Forest floor (metric ton) 101,406,109
8.7%
94,284,774
8.3%
-7.0%
95,730,347
8.8%
-5.6%
Soil (metric ton) 415,677,131
35.9%
395,708,620
35.0%
-4.8%
398,882,054
36.5%
-4.0%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 1,159,075,603
100%
1,130,738,701
100%
-2.4%
1,093,998,484
100%
-5.6%

 Scenarios

There are six scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime.

Moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio)

High greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate gains in income

Low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption.

Harvest Regimes

-C
Scenario projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels
-BIO
Harvest will increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy production

Pennsylvania Population by Scenario

Drivers of Forest Change

A large component of forest change will be the result of normal forest growth, aging, natural regeneration, and species succession. In addition, we expect that a range of external forces will also drive forest change:

  • Population increases will cause millions of acres of forest land to be converted to urban and other land uses.
  • Economic conditions will affect forest products consumption, production, and harvesting rates.
  • The spread of invasive species will exacerbate the effects of other disturbances on forest ecosystems.
  • Changes in population, economic activity, energy consumption, and energy production will affect future climate change.
  • Climate change will, in turn, affect dynamics within forested ecosystems, including patterns of vegetation growth and species succession.

Pennsylvania Future Forest Attributes


Area of forestland for Pennsylvania


Legend
A1B-C
A1B-BIO
A2-C
A2-BIO
B2-C
B2-BIO

Scenario 2020 2040 2060 % Change

Area of forestland under A1B-C in 2060



Rank State Value