Change by Scenario for New York

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 30.2 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 New York Northern
States
New York Population 19,381,612 21,929,075
13.1%
25.6%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 18,950,539
62.8% of total land area
18,219,199
60.3% of total land area
-3.9%
-6.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 15,887,358
52.6% of total land area
15,259,745
50.5% of total land area
-4.0%
-6.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in New York

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 9,864,205,003 9,321,467,973
-5.5%
9,130,377,445
-7.4%
Trees per Person 509 425
-16.5%
416
-18.2%
Volume (cu ft) 29,341,383,047 32,840,243,228
11.9%
30,813,193,814
5.0%
Growth (cu ft/year) 627,000,000 278,000,000
-55.7%
604,000,000
-3.7%
Removals (cu ft/year) 274,000,000 227,000,000
-17.2%
732,000,000
167.2%
Growth to removal ratio 2.3 1.2
-46.5%
0.8
-63.9%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in New York

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 503,159,257
35.7%
538,066,716
38.2%
6.9%
508,915,859
37.2%
1.1%
Roots (metric ton) 99,724,737
7.1%
106,505,842
7.6%
6.8%
100,825,997
7.4%
1.1%
Dead trees (metric ton) 94,108,787
6.7%
95,678,314
6.8%
1.7%
92,725,751
6.8%
-1.5%
Forest floor (metric ton) 159,211,560
11.3%
162,547,161
11.5%
2.1%
158,076,312
11.6%
-0.7%
Soil (metric ton) 552,417,001
39.2%
505,522,144
35.9%
-8.5%
507,314,358
37.1%
-8.2%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 1,408,621,342
100%
1,408,320,178
100%
0.0%
1,367,858,278
100%
-2.9%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 30.2 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 New York Northern
States
New York Population 19,770,564 24,774,290
25.3%
39.1%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 18,950,539
62.8% of total land area
18,311,783
60.6% of total land area
-3.4%
-5.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 15,887,358
52.6% of total land area
15,336,524
50.8% of total land area
-3.5%
-5.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in New York

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 9,864,205,003 9,254,741,125
-6.2%
9,284,891,073
-5.9%
Trees per Person 499 374
-25.1%
375
-24.9%
Volume (cu ft) 29,341,383,047 32,628,280,047
11.2%
31,706,845,231
8.1%
Growth (cu ft/year) 627,000,000 263,000,000
-58.1%
453,000,000
-27.8%
Removals (cu ft/year) 274,000,000 201,000,000
-26.6%
473,000,000
72.6%
Growth to removal ratio 2.3 1.3
-42.8%
1.0
-58.1%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in New York

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 503,159,257
35.7%
536,631,116
38.2%
6.7%
525,389,887
37.7%
4.4%
Roots (metric ton) 99,724,737
7.1%
106,166,645
7.6%
6.5%
103,928,825
7.5%
4.2%
Dead trees (metric ton) 94,108,787
6.7%
95,039,665
6.8%
1.0%
94,632,128
6.8%
0.6%
Forest floor (metric ton) 159,211,560
11.3%
161,075,276
11.5%
1.2%
160,036,236
11.5%
0.5%
Soil (metric ton) 552,417,001
39.2%
505,945,957
36.0%
-8.4%
508,338,255
36.5%
-8.0%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 1,408,621,342
100%
1,404,858,659
100%
-0.3%
1,392,325,331
100%
-1.2%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 30.2 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 New York Northern
States
New York Population 19,323,152 19,475,426
0.8%
11.9%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 18,950,539
62.8% of total land area
18,590,704
61.6% of total land area
-1.9%
-3.5%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 15,887,358
52.6% of total land area
15,581,489
51.6% of total land area
-1.9%
-3.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in New York

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 9,864,205,003 9,550,614,680
-3.2%
9,500,924,630
-3.7%
Trees per Person 510 490
-3.9%
488
-4.4%
Volume (cu ft) 29,341,383,047 33,510,341,642
14.2%
32,450,188,416
10.6%
Growth (cu ft/year) 627,000,000 316,000,000
-49.6%
338,000,000
-46.1%
Removals (cu ft/year) 274,000,000 237,000,000
-13.5%
377,000,000
37.6%
Growth to removal ratio 2.3 1.3
-41.7%
0.9
-60.8%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in New York

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 503,159,257
35.7%
550,528,804
38.2%
9.4%
533,876,969
37.7%
6.1%
Roots (metric ton) 99,724,737
7.1%
108,849,665
7.6%
9.2%
105,576,242
7.5%
5.9%
Dead trees (metric ton) 94,108,787
6.7%
97,836,775
6.8%
4.0%
95,976,342
6.8%
2.0%
Forest floor (metric ton) 159,211,560
11.3%
166,876,486
11.6%
4.8%
163,496,421
11.6%
2.7%
Soil (metric ton) 552,417,001
39.2%
515,365,452
35.8%
-6.7%
515,641,380
36.5%
-6.7%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 1,408,621,342
100%
1,439,457,182
100%
2.2%
1,414,567,354
100%
0.4%

 Scenarios

There are six scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime.

Moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio)

High greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate gains in income

Low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption.

Harvest Regimes

-C
Scenario projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels
-BIO
Harvest will increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy production

New York Population by Scenario

Drivers of Forest Change

A large component of forest change will be the result of normal forest growth, aging, natural regeneration, and species succession. In addition, we expect that a range of external forces will also drive forest change:

  • Population increases will cause millions of acres of forest land to be converted to urban and other land uses.
  • Economic conditions will affect forest products consumption, production, and harvesting rates.
  • The spread of invasive species will exacerbate the effects of other disturbances on forest ecosystems.
  • Changes in population, economic activity, energy consumption, and energy production will affect future climate change.
  • Climate change will, in turn, affect dynamics within forested ecosystems, including patterns of vegetation growth and species succession.

New York Future Forest Attributes


Area of forestland for New York


Legend
A1B-C
A1B-BIO
A2-C
A2-BIO
B2-C
B2-BIO

Scenario 2020 2040 2060 % Change

Area of forestland under A1B-C in 2060



Rank State Value