Change by Scenario for New Jersey

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 4.7 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 New Jersey Northern
States
New Jersey Population 8,947,666 11,969,226
33.8%
25.6%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 2,002,085
42.6% of total land area
1,379,274
29.3% of total land area
-31.1%
-6.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 1,861,278
39.6% of total land area
1,276,595
27.2% of total land area
-31.4%
-6.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in New Jersey

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 917,633,354 648,077,194
-29.4%
640,373,490
-30.2%
Trees per Person 103 54
-47.2%
54
-47.8%
Volume (cu ft) 3,474,487,372 2,402,868,762
-30.8%
2,268,795,216
-34.7%
Growth (cu ft/year) 95,000,000 -15,000,000
-115.8%
39,000,000
-58.9%
Removals (cu ft/year) 21,000,000 20,000,000
-4.8%
71,000,000
238.1%
Growth to removal ratio 4.5 -0.8
-116.6%
0.5
-87.9%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in New Jersey

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 51,061,372
37.9%
35,452,569
37.2%
-30.6%
33,186,307
35.8%
-35.0%
Roots (metric ton) 10,117,174
7.5%
7,037,881
7.4%
-30.4%
6,617,274
7.1%
-34.6%
Dead trees (metric ton) 7,957,269
5.9%
5,641,120
5.9%
-29.1%
5,516,172
5.9%
-30.7%
Forest floor (metric ton) 10,154,245
7.5%
7,344,254
7.7%
-27.7%
7,520,221
8.1%
-25.9%
Soil (metric ton) 55,579,529
41.2%
39,899,651
41.8%
-28.2%
39,948,131
43.1%
-28.1%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 134,869,589
100%
95,375,475
100%
-29.3%
92,788,106
100%
-31.2%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 4.7 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 New Jersey Northern
States
New Jersey Population 9,127,224 13,522,186
48.2%
39.1%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 2,002,085
42.6% of total land area
1,308,660
27.8% of total land area
-34.6%
-5.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 1,861,278
39.6% of total land area
1,211,007
25.8% of total land area
-34.9%
-5.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in New Jersey

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 917,633,354 577,452,727
-37.1%
594,716,576
-35.2%
Trees per Person 101 43
-57.5%
44
-56.3%
Volume (cu ft) 3,474,487,372 2,407,523,954
-30.7%
2,199,422,488
-36.7%
Growth (cu ft/year) 95,000,000 -5,000,000
-105.3%
-5,000,000
-105.3%
Removals (cu ft/year) 21,000,000 14,000,000
-33.3%
48,000,000
128.6%
Growth to removal ratio 4.5 -0.4
-107.9%
-0.1
-102.3%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in New Jersey

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 51,061,372
37.9%
35,579,885
38.4%
-30.3%
32,871,733
36.8%
-35.6%
Roots (metric ton) 10,117,174
7.5%
7,063,247
7.6%
-30.2%
6,522,117
7.3%
-35.5%
Dead trees (metric ton) 7,957,269
5.9%
5,463,198
5.9%
-31.3%
5,345,143
6.0%
-32.8%
Forest floor (metric ton) 10,154,245
7.5%
6,644,119
7.2%
-34.6%
7,037,383
7.9%
-30.7%
Soil (metric ton) 55,579,529
41.2%
37,996,754
41.0%
-31.6%
37,610,494
42.1%
-32.3%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 134,869,589
100%
92,747,203
100%
-31.2%
89,386,870
100%
-33.7%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 4.7 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 New Jersey Northern
States
New Jersey Population 8,920,671 10,629,986
19.2%
11.9%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 2,002,085
42.6% of total land area
1,611,069
34.3% of total land area
-19.5%
-3.5%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 1,861,278
39.6% of total land area
1,493,061
31.8% of total land area
-19.8%
-3.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in New Jersey

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 917,633,354 737,259,891
-19.7%
691,227,019
-24.7%
Trees per Person 103 69
-32.6%
65
-36.8%
Volume (cu ft) 3,474,487,372 2,884,732,254
-17.0%
2,765,205,137
-20.4%
Growth (cu ft/year) 95,000,000 4,000,000
-95.8%
18,000,000
-81.1%
Removals (cu ft/year) 21,000,000 24,000,000
14.3%
38,000,000
81.0%
Growth to removal ratio 4.5 0.2
-96.3%
0.5
-89.5%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in New Jersey

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 51,061,372
37.9%
41,381,054
37.3%
-19.0%
40,128,664
36.7%
-21.4%
Roots (metric ton) 10,117,174
7.5%
8,215,925
7.4%
-18.8%
7,953,355
7.3%
-21.4%
Dead trees (metric ton) 7,957,269
5.9%
6,547,928
5.9%
-17.7%
6,428,288
5.9%
-19.2%
Forest floor (metric ton) 10,154,245
7.5%
8,359,048
7.5%
-17.7%
8,263,193
7.6%
-18.6%
Soil (metric ton) 55,579,529
41.2%
46,306,846
41.8%
-16.7%
46,504,082
42.6%
-16.3%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 134,869,589
100%
110,810,801
100%
-17.8%
109,277,582
100%
-19.0%

 Scenarios

There are six scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime.

Moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio)

High greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate gains in income

Low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption.

Harvest Regimes

-C
Scenario projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels
-BIO
Harvest will increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy production

New Jersey Population by Scenario

Drivers of Forest Change

A large component of forest change will be the result of normal forest growth, aging, natural regeneration, and species succession. In addition, we expect that a range of external forces will also drive forest change:

  • Population increases will cause millions of acres of forest land to be converted to urban and other land uses.
  • Economic conditions will affect forest products consumption, production, and harvesting rates.
  • The spread of invasive species will exacerbate the effects of other disturbances on forest ecosystems.
  • Changes in population, economic activity, energy consumption, and energy production will affect future climate change.
  • Climate change will, in turn, affect dynamics within forested ecosystems, including patterns of vegetation growth and species succession.

New Jersey Future Forest Attributes


Area of forestland for New Jersey


Legend
A1B-C
A1B-BIO
A2-C
A2-BIO
B2-C
B2-BIO

Scenario 2020 2040 2060 % Change

Area of forestland under A1B-C in 2060



Rank State Value