Change by Scenario for Missouri

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 44.1 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Missouri Northern
States
Missouri Population 5,960,310 8,091,325
35.8%
25.6%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 15,396,869
34.9% of total land area
14,624,530
33.2% of total land area
-5.0%
-6.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 15,047,705
34.1% of total land area
14,288,737
32.4% of total land area
-5.0%
-6.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Missouri

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 8,317,671,763 6,684,895,747
-19.6%
6,726,927,814
-19.1%
Trees per Person 1,396 826
-40.8%
831
-40.4%
Volume (cu ft) 16,809,360,647 19,639,434,061
16.8%
16,652,544,078
-0.9%
Growth (cu ft/year) 510,000,000 245,000,000
-52.0%
482,000,000
-5.5%
Removals (cu ft/year) 141,000,000 141,000,000
0.0%
595,000,000
322.0%
Growth to removal ratio 3.6 1.7
-52.0%
0.8
-77.6%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Missouri

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 291,678,558
38.1%
319,730,671
40.5%
9.6%
276,436,860
37.8%
-5.2%
Roots (metric ton) 56,706,309
7.4%
62,075,711
7.9%
9.5%
53,796,730
7.4%
-5.1%
Dead trees (metric ton) 58,642,546
7.7%
61,211,692
7.7%
4.4%
56,012,813
7.7%
-4.5%
Forest floor (metric ton) 59,396,452
7.8%
66,913,979
8.5%
12.7%
65,980,122
9.0%
11.1%
Soil (metric ton) 299,493,113
39.1%
280,347,714
35.5%
-6.4%
278,306,376
38.1%
-7.1%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 765,916,977
100%
790,279,767
100%
3.2%
730,532,901
100%
-4.6%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 44.1 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Missouri Northern
States
Missouri Population 6,079,915 9,141,149
50.3%
39.1%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 15,396,869
34.9% of total land area
14,773,716
33.5% of total land area
-4.0%
-5.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 15,047,705
34.1% of total land area
14,435,119
32.7% of total land area
-4.1%
-5.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Missouri

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 8,317,671,763 6,883,274,039
-17.2%
6,761,976,418
-18.7%
Trees per Person 1,368 753
-45.0%
740
-45.9%
Volume (cu ft) 16,809,360,647 19,905,769,225
18.4%
18,349,782,215
9.2%
Growth (cu ft/year) 510,000,000 295,000,000
-42.2%
402,000,000
-21.2%
Removals (cu ft/year) 141,000,000 148,000,000
5.0%
394,000,000
179.4%
Growth to removal ratio 3.6 2.0
-44.9%
1.0
-71.8%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Missouri

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 291,678,558
38.1%
322,452,907
40.4%
10.6%
300,304,363
39.2%
3.0%
Roots (metric ton) 56,706,309
7.4%
62,649,200
7.8%
10.5%
58,371,986
7.6%
2.9%
Dead trees (metric ton) 58,642,546
7.7%
61,825,805
7.7%
5.4%
59,029,743
7.7%
0.7%
Forest floor (metric ton) 59,396,452
7.8%
69,830,719
8.7%
17.6%
67,795,826
8.8%
14.1%
Soil (metric ton) 299,493,113
39.1%
281,524,021
35.3%
-6.0%
280,886,005
36.7%
-6.2%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 765,916,977
100%
798,282,652
100%
4.2%
766,387,925
100%
0.1%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 44.1 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Missouri Northern
States
Missouri Population 5,942,328 7,185,989
20.9%
11.9%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 15,396,869
34.9% of total land area
14,975,501
34% of total land area
-2.7%
-3.5%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 15,047,705
34.1% of total land area
14,632,893
33.2% of total land area
-2.8%
-3.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Missouri

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 8,317,671,763 6,836,307,364
-17.8%
6,967,084,518
-16.2%
Trees per Person 1,400 951
-32.0%
970
-30.7%
Volume (cu ft) 16,809,360,647 20,278,558,464
20.6%
19,240,114,686
14.5%
Growth (cu ft/year) 510,000,000 340,000,000
-33.3%
365,000,000
-28.4%
Removals (cu ft/year) 141,000,000 179,000,000
27.0%
301,000,000
113.5%
Growth to removal ratio 3.6 1.9
-47.5%
1.2
-66.5%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Missouri

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 291,678,558
38.1%
329,744,370
40.6%
13.1%
313,337,385
39.6%
7.4%
Roots (metric ton) 56,706,309
7.4%
64,023,768
7.9%
12.9%
60,880,201
7.7%
7.4%
Dead trees (metric ton) 58,642,546
7.7%
62,912,996
7.7%
7.3%
61,096,280
7.7%
4.2%
Forest floor (metric ton) 59,396,452
7.8%
70,660,424
8.7%
19.0%
69,626,976
8.8%
17.2%
Soil (metric ton) 299,493,113
39.1%
285,834,807
35.2%
-4.6%
286,625,993
36.2%
-4.3%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 765,916,977
100%
813,176,366
100%
6.2%
791,566,834
100%
3.3%

 Scenarios

There are six scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime.

Moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio)

High greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate gains in income

Low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption.

Harvest Regimes

-C
Scenario projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels
-BIO
Harvest will increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy production

Missouri Population by Scenario

Drivers of Forest Change

A large component of forest change will be the result of normal forest growth, aging, natural regeneration, and species succession. In addition, we expect that a range of external forces will also drive forest change:

  • Population increases will cause millions of acres of forest land to be converted to urban and other land uses.
  • Economic conditions will affect forest products consumption, production, and harvesting rates.
  • The spread of invasive species will exacerbate the effects of other disturbances on forest ecosystems.
  • Changes in population, economic activity, energy consumption, and energy production will affect future climate change.
  • Climate change will, in turn, affect dynamics within forested ecosystems, including patterns of vegetation growth and species succession.

Missouri Future Forest Attributes


Area of forestland for Missouri


Legend
A1B-C
A1B-BIO
A2-C
A2-BIO
B2-C
B2-BIO

Scenario 2020 2040 2060 % Change

Area of forestland under A1B-C in 2060



Rank State Value