Change by Scenario for Minnesota

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 51 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Minnesota Northern
States
Minnesota Population 5,357,749 7,987,712
49.1%
25.6%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 16,990,267
33.3% of total land area
16,388,716
32.1% of total land area
-3.5%
-6.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 15,595,411
30.6% of total land area
15,037,404
29.5% of total land area
-3.6%
-6.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Minnesota

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 12,070,203,368 10,541,517,620
-12.7%
10,845,789,741
-10.1%
Trees per Person 2,253 1,320
-41.4%
1,358
-39.7%
Volume (cu ft) 14,524,670,626 17,818,287,863
22.7%
9,877,606,860
-32.0%
Growth (cu ft/year) 421,000,000 475,000,000
12.8%
119,000,000
-71.7%
Removals (cu ft/year) 257,000,000 302,000,000
17.5%
605,000,000
135.4%
Growth to removal ratio 1.6 1.6
-4.0%
0.2
-88.0%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Minnesota

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 219,686,589
13.9%
249,553,055
15.8%
13.6%
165,829,090
11.5%
-24.5%
Roots (metric ton) 44,370,248
2.8%
50,097,982
3.2%
12.9%
33,168,299
2.3%
-25.2%
Dead trees (metric ton) 60,680,839
3.8%
64,897,568
4.1%
6.9%
55,937,773
3.9%
-7.8%
Forest floor (metric ton) 108,540,035
6.9%
101,545,471
6.4%
-6.4%
87,779,563
6.1%
-19.1%
Soil (metric ton) 1,145,605,737
72.6%
1,113,956,322
70.5%
-2.8%
1,104,420,226
76.3%
-3.6%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 1,578,883,447
100%
1,580,050,397
100%
0.1%
1,447,134,951
100%
-8.3%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 51 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Minnesota Northern
States
Minnesota Population 5,465,268 9,024,085
65.1%
39.1%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 16,990,267
33.3% of total land area
16,487,156
32.3% of total land area
-3.0%
-5.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 15,595,411
30.6% of total land area
15,133,046
29.7% of total land area
-3.0%
-5.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Minnesota

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 12,070,203,368 10,371,100,272
-14.1%
11,052,831,322
-8.4%
Trees per Person 2,209 1,149
-48.0%
1,225
-44.5%
Volume (cu ft) 14,524,670,626 18,068,574,950
24.4%
14,920,020,289
2.7%
Growth (cu ft/year) 421,000,000 486,000,000
15.4%
390,000,000
-7.4%
Removals (cu ft/year) 257,000,000 323,000,000
25.7%
527,000,000
105.1%
Growth to removal ratio 1.6 1.5
-8.1%
0.7
-54.8%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Minnesota

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 219,686,589
13.9%
252,445,764
15.9%
14.9%
218,322,299
14.3%
-0.6%
Roots (metric ton) 44,370,248
2.8%
50,667,101
3.2%
14.2%
43,743,337
2.9%
-1.4%
Dead trees (metric ton) 60,680,839
3.8%
65,355,898
4.1%
7.7%
61,202,119
4.0%
0.9%
Forest floor (metric ton) 108,540,035
6.9%
103,572,219
6.5%
-4.6%
95,312,941
6.2%
-12.2%
Soil (metric ton) 1,145,605,737
72.6%
1,118,586,832
70.3%
-2.4%
1,108,167,119
72.6%
-3.3%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 1,578,883,447
100%
1,590,627,815
100%
0.7%
1,526,747,814
100%
-3.3%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 51 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Minnesota Northern
States
Minnesota Population 5,341,585 7,093,963
32.8%
11.9%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 16,990,267
33.3% of total land area
16,626,092
32.6% of total land area
-2.1%
-3.5%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 15,595,411
30.6% of total land area
15,256,596
29.9% of total land area
-2.2%
-3.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Minnesota

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 12,070,203,368 10,748,473,946
-11.0%
10,877,253,841
-9.9%
Trees per Person 2,260 1,515
-32.9%
1,533
-32.1%
Volume (cu ft) 14,524,670,626 17,051,277,212
17.4%
14,251,417,901
-1.9%
Growth (cu ft/year) 421,000,000 367,000,000
-12.8%
282,000,000
-33.0%
Removals (cu ft/year) 257,000,000 285,000,000
10.9%
461,000,000
79.4%
Growth to removal ratio 1.6 1.3
-21.4%
0.6
-62.7%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Minnesota

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 219,686,589
13.9%
243,532,378
15.3%
10.9%
215,169,805
14.0%
-2.1%
Roots (metric ton) 44,370,248
2.8%
48,913,284
3.1%
10.2%
43,127,062
2.8%
-2.8%
Dead trees (metric ton) 60,680,839
3.8%
63,880,841
4.0%
5.3%
60,533,252
3.9%
-0.2%
Forest floor (metric ton) 108,540,035
6.9%
104,160,419
6.5%
-4.0%
97,190,070
6.3%
-10.5%
Soil (metric ton) 1,145,605,737
72.6%
1,131,304,557
71.1%
-1.2%
1,119,702,058
72.9%
-2.3%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 1,578,883,447
100%
1,591,791,479
100%
0.8%
1,535,722,247
100%
-2.7%

 Scenarios

There are six scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime.

Moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio)

High greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate gains in income

Low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption.

Harvest Regimes

-C
Scenario projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels
-BIO
Harvest will increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy production

Minnesota Population by Scenario

Drivers of Forest Change

A large component of forest change will be the result of normal forest growth, aging, natural regeneration, and species succession. In addition, we expect that a range of external forces will also drive forest change:

  • Population increases will cause millions of acres of forest land to be converted to urban and other land uses.
  • Economic conditions will affect forest products consumption, production, and harvesting rates.
  • The spread of invasive species will exacerbate the effects of other disturbances on forest ecosystems.
  • Changes in population, economic activity, energy consumption, and energy production will affect future climate change.
  • Climate change will, in turn, affect dynamics within forested ecosystems, including patterns of vegetation growth and species succession.

Minnesota Future Forest Attributes


Area of forestland for Minnesota


Legend
A1B-C
A1B-BIO
A2-C
A2-BIO
B2-C
B2-BIO

Scenario 2020 2040 2060 % Change

Area of forestland under A1B-C in 2060



Rank State Value