Change by Scenario for Michigan

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 36.3 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Michigan Northern
States
Michigan Population 10,164,524 12,173,284
19.8%
25.6%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 19,821,356
54.6% of total land area
18,701,105
51.5% of total land area
-5.7%
-6.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 19,236,534
53% of total land area
18,126,061
49.9% of total land area
-5.8%
-6.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Michigan

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 13,627,189,365 12,063,348,437
-11.5%
10,927,649,369
-19.8%
Trees per Person 1,341 991
-26.1%
898
-33.0%
Volume (cu ft) 28,352,476,853 30,521,466,581
7.7%
22,616,279,219
-20.2%
Growth (cu ft/year) 697,000,000 494,000,000
-29.1%
600,000,000
-13.9%
Removals (cu ft/year) 318,000,000 359,000,000
12.9%
1,142,000,000
259.1%
Growth to removal ratio 2.2 1.4
-37.2%
0.5
-76.0%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Michigan

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 373,653,757
19.9%
389,580,988
21.3%
4.3%
307,149,991
18.0%
-17.8%
Roots (metric ton) 75,166,626
4.0%
78,335,466
4.3%
4.2%
61,404,715
3.6%
-18.3%
Dead trees (metric ton) 84,716,065
4.5%
85,021,910
4.7%
0.4%
75,833,828
4.4%
-10.5%
Forest floor (metric ton) 144,224,319
7.7%
144,179,203
7.9%
0.0%
133,915,152
7.9%
-7.1%
Soil (metric ton) 1,200,615,411
63.9%
1,128,581,386
61.8%
-6.0%
1,127,267,777
66.1%
-6.1%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 1,878,376,179
100%
1,825,698,954
100%
-2.8%
1,705,571,462
100%
-9.2%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 36.3 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Michigan Northern
States
Michigan Population 10,368,504 13,752,721
32.6%
39.1%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 19,821,356
54.6% of total land area
18,856,323
51.9% of total land area
-4.9%
-5.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 19,236,534
53% of total land area
18,279,456
50.4% of total land area
-5.0%
-5.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Michigan

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 13,627,189,365 11,876,253,138
-12.8%
11,601,372,395
-14.9%
Trees per Person 1,314 864
-34.3%
844
-35.8%
Volume (cu ft) 28,352,476,853 30,827,121,903
8.7%
25,898,408,488
-8.7%
Growth (cu ft/year) 697,000,000 542,000,000
-22.2%
617,000,000
-11.5%
Removals (cu ft/year) 318,000,000 392,000,000
23.3%
894,000,000
181.1%
Growth to removal ratio 2.2 1.4
-36.9%
0.7
-68.5%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Michigan

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 373,653,757
19.9%
393,149,984
21.5%
5.2%
342,033,508
19.4%
-8.5%
Roots (metric ton) 75,166,626
4.0%
78,998,415
4.3%
5.1%
68,524,874
3.9%
-8.8%
Dead trees (metric ton) 84,716,065
4.5%
85,217,717
4.7%
0.6%
79,438,106
4.5%
-6.2%
Forest floor (metric ton) 144,224,319
7.7%
144,124,154
7.9%
-0.1%
138,669,079
7.9%
-3.9%
Soil (metric ton) 1,200,615,411
63.9%
1,130,220,819
61.7%
-5.9%
1,131,089,222
64.3%
-5.8%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 1,878,376,179
100%
1,831,711,089
100%
-2.5%
1,759,754,789
100%
-6.3%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 36.3 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Michigan Northern
States
Michigan Population 10,133,860 10,811,211
6.7%
11.9%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 19,821,356
54.6% of total land area
19,225,223
53% of total land area
-3.0%
-3.5%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 19,236,534
53% of total land area
18,645,251
51.4% of total land area
-3.1%
-3.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Michigan

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 13,627,189,365 12,190,108,771
-10.5%
12,000,701,553
-11.9%
Trees per Person 1,345 1,128
-16.2%
1,110
-17.5%
Volume (cu ft) 28,352,476,853 31,994,323,336
12.8%
28,925,416,208
2.0%
Growth (cu ft/year) 697,000,000 572,000,000
-17.9%
589,000,000
-15.5%
Removals (cu ft/year) 318,000,000 398,000,000
25.2%
706,000,000
122.0%
Growth to removal ratio 2.2 1.4
-34.4%
0.8
-61.9%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Michigan

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 373,653,757
19.9%
406,662,973
21.7%
8.8%
375,331,919
20.4%
0.4%
Roots (metric ton) 75,166,626
4.0%
81,903,383
4.4%
9.0%
75,419,523
4.1%
0.3%
Dead trees (metric ton) 84,716,065
4.5%
87,454,632
4.7%
3.2%
84,323,565
4.6%
-0.5%
Forest floor (metric ton) 144,224,319
7.7%
147,281,219
7.9%
2.1%
144,418,210
7.9%
0.1%
Soil (metric ton) 1,200,615,411
63.9%
1,146,934,525
61.3%
-4.5%
1,156,806,764
63.0%
-3.6%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 1,878,376,179
100%
1,870,236,731
100%
-0.4%
1,836,299,981
100%
-2.2%

 Scenarios

There are six scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime.

Moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio)

High greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate gains in income

Low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption.

Harvest Regimes

-C
Scenario projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels
-BIO
Harvest will increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy production

Michigan Population by Scenario

Drivers of Forest Change

A large component of forest change will be the result of normal forest growth, aging, natural regeneration, and species succession. In addition, we expect that a range of external forces will also drive forest change:

  • Population increases will cause millions of acres of forest land to be converted to urban and other land uses.
  • Economic conditions will affect forest products consumption, production, and harvesting rates.
  • The spread of invasive species will exacerbate the effects of other disturbances on forest ecosystems.
  • Changes in population, economic activity, energy consumption, and energy production will affect future climate change.
  • Climate change will, in turn, affect dynamics within forested ecosystems, including patterns of vegetation growth and species succession.

Michigan Future Forest Attributes


Area of forestland for Michigan


Legend
A1B-C
A1B-BIO
A2-C
A2-BIO
B2-C
B2-BIO

Scenario 2020 2040 2060 % Change

Area of forestland under A1B-C in 2060



Rank State Value