Change by Scenario for Maine

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 19.8 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Maine Northern
States
Maine Population 1,341,561 1,755,451
30.9%
25.6%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 17,657,486
89.2% of total land area
17,318,560
87.5% of total land area
-1.9%
-6.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 17,148,652
86.6% of total land area
16,814,260
84.9% of total land area
-1.9%
-6.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Maine

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 22,738,388,011 21,097,658,884
-7.2%
23,082,897,595
1.5%
Trees per Person 16,949 12,018
-29.1%
13,149
-22.4%
Volume (cu ft) 23,148,202,585 23,543,234,599
1.7%
12,950,521,461
-44.1%
Growth (cu ft/year) 573,000,000 476,000,000
-16.9%
240,000,000
-58.1%
Removals (cu ft/year) 542,000,000 559,000,000
3.1%
1,143,000,000
110.9%
Growth to removal ratio 1.1 0.9
-19.5%
0.2
-80.1%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Maine

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 312,315,348
25.7%
315,628,921
26.3%
1.1%
215,497,313
21.0%
-31.0%
Roots (metric ton) 65,430,637
5.4%
66,084,502
5.5%
1.0%
45,113,956
4.4%
-31.1%
Dead trees (metric ton) 81,698,988
6.7%
80,778,643
6.7%
-1.1%
69,178,171
6.7%
-15.3%
Forest floor (metric ton) 169,109,528
13.9%
171,199,069
14.3%
1.2%
137,034,984
13.4%
-19.0%
Soil (metric ton) 587,984,584
48.3%
564,936,276
47.1%
-3.9%
558,289,058
54.5%
-5.1%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 1,216,539,086
100%
1,198,627,411
100%
-1.5%
1,025,113,481
100%
-15.7%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 19.8 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Maine Northern
States
Maine Population 1,368,481 1,983,214
44.9%
39.1%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 17,657,486
89.2% of total land area
17,369,290
87.7% of total land area
-1.6%
-5.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 17,148,652
86.6% of total land area
16,863,636
85.2% of total land area
-1.7%
-5.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Maine

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 22,738,388,011 20,220,139,201
-11.1%
21,839,078,616
-4.0%
Trees per Person 16,616 10,196
-38.6%
11,012
-33.7%
Volume (cu ft) 23,148,202,585 24,368,903,113
5.3%
16,641,638,060
-28.1%
Growth (cu ft/year) 573,000,000 523,000,000
-8.7%
434,000,000
-24.3%
Removals (cu ft/year) 542,000,000 567,000,000
4.6%
1,065,000,000
96.5%
Growth to removal ratio 1.1 0.9
-12.8%
0.4
-61.5%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Maine

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 312,315,348
25.7%
323,888,930
26.7%
3.7%
250,368,311
23.0%
-19.8%
Roots (metric ton) 65,430,637
5.4%
67,715,434
5.6%
3.5%
52,261,146
4.8%
-20.1%
Dead trees (metric ton) 81,698,988
6.7%
82,135,610
6.8%
0.5%
72,554,549
6.7%
-11.2%
Forest floor (metric ton) 169,109,528
13.9%
175,754,467
14.5%
3.9%
150,930,334
13.9%
-10.7%
Soil (metric ton) 587,984,584
48.3%
565,691,851
46.6%
-3.8%
563,173,685
51.7%
-4.2%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 1,216,539,086
100%
1,215,186,291
100%
-0.1%
1,089,288,024
100%
-10.5%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 19.8 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Maine Northern
States
Maine Population 1,337,513 1,559,033
16.6%
11.9%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 17,657,486
89.2% of total land area
17,480,665
88.3% of total land area
-1.0%
-3.5%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 17,148,652
86.6% of total land area
16,973,982
85.7% of total land area
-1.0%
-3.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Maine

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 22,738,388,011 20,703,854,625
-8.9%
21,635,599,960
-4.8%
Trees per Person 17,000 13,280
-21.9%
13,878
-18.4%
Volume (cu ft) 23,148,202,585 24,609,436,807
6.3%
19,940,707,917
-13.9%
Growth (cu ft/year) 573,000,000 521,000,000
-9.1%
498,000,000
-13.1%
Removals (cu ft/year) 542,000,000 494,000,000
-8.9%
874,000,000
61.3%
Growth to removal ratio 1.1 1.1
-0.2%
0.6
-46.1%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Maine

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 312,315,348
25.7%
326,009,388
26.7%
4.4%
283,473,275
24.7%
-9.2%
Roots (metric ton) 65,430,637
5.4%
68,223,096
5.6%
4.3%
59,252,423
5.2%
-9.4%
Dead trees (metric ton) 81,698,988
6.7%
82,142,947
6.7%
0.5%
77,160,853
6.7%
-5.6%
Forest floor (metric ton) 169,109,528
13.9%
173,953,904
14.3%
2.9%
161,569,889
14.1%
-4.5%
Soil (metric ton) 587,984,584
48.3%
568,515,978
46.6%
-3.3%
567,046,422
49.4%
-3.6%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 1,216,539,086
100%
1,218,845,313
100%
0.2%
1,148,502,863
100%
-5.6%

 Scenarios

There are six scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime.

Moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio)

High greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate gains in income

Low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption.

Harvest Regimes

-C
Scenario projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels
-BIO
Harvest will increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy production

Maine Population by Scenario

Drivers of Forest Change

A large component of forest change will be the result of normal forest growth, aging, natural regeneration, and species succession. In addition, we expect that a range of external forces will also drive forest change:

  • Population increases will cause millions of acres of forest land to be converted to urban and other land uses.
  • Economic conditions will affect forest products consumption, production, and harvesting rates.
  • The spread of invasive species will exacerbate the effects of other disturbances on forest ecosystems.
  • Changes in population, economic activity, energy consumption, and energy production will affect future climate change.
  • Climate change will, in turn, affect dynamics within forested ecosystems, including patterns of vegetation growth and species succession.

Maine Future Forest Attributes


Area of forestland for Maine


Legend
A1B-C
A1B-BIO
A2-C
A2-BIO
B2-C
B2-BIO

Scenario 2020 2040 2060 % Change

Area of forestland under A1B-C in 2060



Rank State Value