Change by Scenario for Maryland

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 6.3 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Maryland Northern
States
Maryland Population 5,877,415 9,119,982
55.2%
25.6%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 2,492,611
39.6% of total land area
1,679,649
26.7% of total land area
-32.6%
-6.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 2,368,800
37.6% of total land area
1,598,284
25.4% of total land area
-32.5%
-6.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Maryland

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 1,435,530,249 902,476,355
-37.1%
911,352,920
-36.5%
Trees per Person 244 99
-59.5%
100
-59.1%
Volume (cu ft) 5,925,678,744 4,294,442,462
-27.5%
3,369,645,250
-43.1%
Growth (cu ft/year) 176,000,000 18,000,000
-89.8%
16,000,000
-90.9%
Removals (cu ft/year) 54,000,000 38,000,000
-29.6%
89,000,000
64.8%
Growth to removal ratio 3.3 0.5
-85.5%
0.2
-94.5%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Maryland

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 81,825,630
44.2%
58,524,867
44.3%
-28.5%
46,726,142
40.1%
-42.9%
Roots (metric ton) 16,004,495
8.7%
11,435,566
8.7%
-28.5%
9,184,907
7.9%
-42.6%
Dead trees (metric ton) 12,208,578
6.6%
8,745,623
6.6%
-28.4%
7,952,675
6.8%
-34.9%
Forest floor (metric ton) 11,167,070
6.0%
8,436,054
6.4%
-24.5%
7,945,610
6.8%
-28.8%
Soil (metric ton) 63,760,072
34.5%
44,922,545
34.0%
-29.5%
44,749,911
38.4%
-29.8%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 184,965,844
100%
132,064,656
100%
-28.6%
116,559,245
100%
-37.0%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 6.3 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Maryland Northern
States
Maryland Population 5,995,360 10,303,265
71.9%
39.1%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 2,492,611
39.6% of total land area
1,745,931
27.7% of total land area
-30.0%
-5.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 2,368,800
37.6% of total land area
1,663,008
26.4% of total land area
-29.8%
-5.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Maryland

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 1,435,530,249 910,835,095
-36.6%
928,336,014
-35.3%
Trees per Person 239 88
-63.1%
90
-62.4%
Volume (cu ft) 5,925,678,744 4,178,515,530
-29.5%
3,740,993,460
-36.9%
Growth (cu ft/year) 176,000,000 -11,000,000
-106.3%
3,000,000
-98.3%
Removals (cu ft/year) 54,000,000 31,000,000
-42.6%
83,000,000
53.7%
Growth to removal ratio 3.3 -0.4
-110.9%
0.0
-98.9%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Maryland

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 81,825,630
44.2%
57,345,115
43.2%
-29.9%
52,105,610
41.6%
-36.3%
Roots (metric ton) 16,004,495
8.7%
11,219,846
8.5%
-29.9%
10,202,476
8.1%
-36.3%
Dead trees (metric ton) 12,208,578
6.6%
8,760,784
6.6%
-28.2%
8,395,595
6.7%
-31.2%
Forest floor (metric ton) 11,167,070
6.0%
8,995,590
6.8%
-19.4%
8,457,411
6.7%
-24.3%
Soil (metric ton) 63,760,072
34.5%
46,413,929
35.0%
-27.2%
46,159,399
36.8%
-27.6%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 184,965,844
100%
132,735,265
100%
-28.2%
125,320,491
100%
-32.2%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 6.3 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Maryland Northern
States
Maryland Population 5,859,685 8,099,547
38.2%
11.9%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 2,492,611
39.6% of total land area
1,952,036
31% of total land area
-21.7%
-3.5%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 2,368,800
37.6% of total land area
1,856,109
29.5% of total land area
-21.6%
-3.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Maryland

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 1,435,530,249 1,009,917,499
-29.6%
1,030,134,463
-28.2%
Trees per Person 245 125
-49.1%
127
-48.1%
Volume (cu ft) 5,925,678,744 4,468,323,586
-24.6%
4,213,685,397
-28.9%
Growth (cu ft/year) 176,000,000 16,000,000
-90.9%
30,000,000
-83.0%
Removals (cu ft/year) 54,000,000 42,000,000
-22.2%
86,000,000
59.3%
Growth to removal ratio 3.3 0.4
-88.3%
0.3
-89.3%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Maryland

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 81,825,630
44.2%
61,821,016
42.6%
-24.4%
58,094,732
41.2%
-29.0%
Roots (metric ton) 16,004,495
8.7%
12,086,346
8.3%
-24.5%
11,388,979
8.1%
-28.8%
Dead trees (metric ton) 12,208,578
6.6%
9,608,563
6.6%
-21.3%
9,282,503
6.6%
-24.0%
Forest floor (metric ton) 11,167,070
6.0%
9,599,301
6.6%
-14.0%
10,023,447
7.1%
-10.2%
Soil (metric ton) 63,760,072
34.5%
52,059,610
35.9%
-18.4%
52,233,556
37.0%
-18.1%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 184,965,844
100%
145,174,835
100%
-21.5%
141,023,216
100%
-23.8%

 Scenarios

There are six scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime.

Moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio)

High greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate gains in income

Low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption.

Harvest Regimes

-C
Scenario projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels
-BIO
Harvest will increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy production

Maryland Population by Scenario

Drivers of Forest Change

A large component of forest change will be the result of normal forest growth, aging, natural regeneration, and species succession. In addition, we expect that a range of external forces will also drive forest change:

  • Population increases will cause millions of acres of forest land to be converted to urban and other land uses.
  • Economic conditions will affect forest products consumption, production, and harvesting rates.
  • The spread of invasive species will exacerbate the effects of other disturbances on forest ecosystems.
  • Changes in population, economic activity, energy consumption, and energy production will affect future climate change.
  • Climate change will, in turn, affect dynamics within forested ecosystems, including patterns of vegetation growth and species succession.

Maryland Future Forest Attributes


Area of forestland for Maryland


Legend
A1B-C
A1B-BIO
A2-C
A2-BIO
B2-C
B2-BIO

Scenario 2020 2040 2060 % Change

Area of forestland under A1B-C in 2060



Rank State Value