Change by Scenario for Massachusetts

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 5 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Massachusetts Northern
States
Massachusetts Population 6,498,430 7,801,080
20.0%
25.6%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 3,019,474
60.4% of total land area
2,627,179
52.5% of total land area
-13.0%
-6.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 2,894,641
57.9% of total land area
2,526,542
50.5% of total land area
-12.7%
-6.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Massachusetts

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 1,481,292,272 1,280,919,516
-13.5%
1,250,462,881
-15.6%
Trees per Person 228 164
-28.0%
160
-29.7%
Volume (cu ft) 6,914,936,017 5,762,588,325
-16.7%
5,886,790,670
-14.9%
Growth (cu ft/year) 155,000,000 -41,000,000
-126.5%
-26,000,000
-116.8%
Removals (cu ft/year) 13,000,000 3,000,000
-76.9%
18,000,000
38.5%
Growth to removal ratio 11.9 -13.7
-214.6%
-1.4
-112.1%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Massachusetts

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 93,594,905
40.3%
82,773,196
40.0%
-11.6%
82,587,420
39.9%
-11.8%
Roots (metric ton) 18,800,021
8.1%
16,448,637
8.0%
-12.5%
16,436,752
7.9%
-12.6%
Dead trees (metric ton) 14,934,232
6.4%
13,101,599
6.3%
-12.3%
13,177,851
6.4%
-11.8%
Forest floor (metric ton) 20,788,330
9.0%
19,490,179
9.4%
-6.2%
19,275,710
9.3%
-7.3%
Soil (metric ton) 84,008,813
36.2%
75,035,961
36.3%
-10.7%
75,365,043
36.4%
-10.3%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 232,126,301
100%
206,849,573
100%
-10.9%
206,842,776
100%
-10.9%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 5 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Massachusetts Northern
States
Massachusetts Population 6,628,842 8,813,237
33.0%
39.1%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 3,019,474
60.4% of total land area
2,597,139
51.9% of total land area
-14.0%
-5.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 2,894,641
57.9% of total land area
2,498,421
50% of total land area
-13.7%
-5.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Massachusetts

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 1,481,292,272 1,246,996,655
-15.8%
1,292,860,643
-12.7%
Trees per Person 223 141
-36.7%
147
-34.4%
Volume (cu ft) 6,914,936,017 5,983,622,521
-13.5%
5,617,252,792
-18.8%
Growth (cu ft/year) 155,000,000 -36,000,000
-123.2%
-51,000,000
-132.9%
Removals (cu ft/year) 13,000,000 500,000
-96.2%
9,000,000
-30.8%
Growth to removal ratio 11.9 -72.0
-703.9%
-5.7
-147.5%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Massachusetts

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 93,594,905
40.3%
84,786,711
40.8%
-9.4%
80,943,384
39.9%
-13.5%
Roots (metric ton) 18,800,021
8.1%
16,834,365
8.1%
-10.5%
16,071,902
7.9%
-14.5%
Dead trees (metric ton) 14,934,232
6.4%
13,279,229
6.4%
-11.1%
12,854,831
6.3%
-13.9%
Forest floor (metric ton) 20,788,330
9.0%
19,100,788
9.2%
-8.1%
19,089,140
9.4%
-8.2%
Soil (metric ton) 84,008,813
36.2%
73,927,669
35.6%
-12.0%
73,751,381
36.4%
-12.2%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 232,126,301
100%
207,928,763
100%
-10.4%
202,710,637
100%
-12.7%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 5 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Massachusetts Northern
States
Massachusetts Population 6,478,828 6,928,215
6.9%
11.9%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 3,019,474
60.4% of total land area
2,796,331
55.9% of total land area
-7.4%
-3.5%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 2,894,641
57.9% of total land area
2,684,946
53.7% of total land area
-7.2%
-3.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Massachusetts

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 1,481,292,272 1,302,530,557
-12.1%
1,320,900,444
-10.8%
Trees per Person 229 188
-17.8%
191
-16.6%
Volume (cu ft) 6,914,936,017 6,204,332,359
-10.3%
6,518,505,730
-5.7%
Growth (cu ft/year) 155,000,000 -21,000,000
-113.5%
-9,000,000
-105.8%
Removals (cu ft/year) 13,000,000 8,000,000
-38.5%
12,000,000
-7.7%
Growth to removal ratio 11.9 -2.6
-122.0%
-0.8
-106.3%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Massachusetts

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 93,594,905
40.3%
87,502,579
39.9%
-6.5%
91,710,243
41.0%
-2.0%
Roots (metric ton) 18,800,021
8.1%
17,398,475
7.9%
-7.5%
18,230,774
8.2%
-3.0%
Dead trees (metric ton) 14,934,232
6.4%
13,856,678
6.3%
-7.2%
14,351,494
6.4%
-3.9%
Forest floor (metric ton) 20,788,330
9.0%
20,507,772
9.4%
-1.3%
20,155,603
9.0%
-3.0%
Soil (metric ton) 84,008,813
36.2%
79,791,242
36.4%
-5.0%
79,107,645
35.4%
-5.8%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 232,126,301
100%
219,056,745
100%
-5.6%
223,555,758
100%
-3.7%

 Scenarios

There are six scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime.

Moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio)

High greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate gains in income

Low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption.

Harvest Regimes

-C
Scenario projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels
-BIO
Harvest will increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy production

Massachusetts Population by Scenario

Drivers of Forest Change

A large component of forest change will be the result of normal forest growth, aging, natural regeneration, and species succession. In addition, we expect that a range of external forces will also drive forest change:

  • Population increases will cause millions of acres of forest land to be converted to urban and other land uses.
  • Economic conditions will affect forest products consumption, production, and harvesting rates.
  • The spread of invasive species will exacerbate the effects of other disturbances on forest ecosystems.
  • Changes in population, economic activity, energy consumption, and energy production will affect future climate change.
  • Climate change will, in turn, affect dynamics within forested ecosystems, including patterns of vegetation growth and species succession.

Massachusetts Future Forest Attributes


Area of forestland for Massachusetts


Legend
A1B-C
A1B-BIO
A2-C
A2-BIO
B2-C
B2-BIO

Scenario 2020 2040 2060 % Change

Area of forestland under A1B-C in 2060



Rank State Value