Change by Scenario for Illinois

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 35.6 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Illinois Northern
States
Illinois Population 13,041,763 16,364,498
25.5%
25.6%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 4,797,669
13.5% of total land area
4,471,664
12.6% of total land area
-6.8%
-6.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 4,687,135
13.2% of total land area
4,388,535
12.3% of total land area
-6.4%
-6.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Illinois

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 2,069,249,530 1,816,883,371
-12.2%
1,926,088,742
-6.9%
Trees per Person 159 111
-30.0%
118
-25.8%
Volume (cu ft) 7,244,662,214 7,335,738,157
1.3%
6,505,076,317
-10.2%
Growth (cu ft/year) 226,000,000 23,000,000
-89.8%
41,000,000
-81.9%
Removals (cu ft/year) 33,000,000 38,000,000
15.2%
150,000,000
354.5%
Growth to removal ratio 6.8 0.6
-91.2%
0.3
-96.0%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Illinois

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 109,816,001
39.8%
106,055,000
40.5%
-3.4%
99,060,196
39.2%
-9.8%
Roots (metric ton) 21,093,947
7.6%
20,350,534
7.8%
-3.5%
19,009,856
7.5%
-9.9%
Dead trees (metric ton) 21,159,746
7.7%
19,810,127
7.6%
-6.4%
18,877,573
7.5%
-10.8%
Forest floor (metric ton) 15,962,249
5.8%
19,701,181
7.5%
23.4%
19,280,115
7.6%
20.8%
Soil (metric ton) 107,833,716
39.1%
95,998,546
36.7%
-11.0%
96,212,646
38.1%
-10.8%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 275,865,660
100%
261,915,388
100%
-5.1%
252,440,386
100%
-8.5%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 35.6 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Illinois Northern
States
Illinois Population 13,303,482 18,487,735
39.0%
39.1%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 4,797,669
13.5% of total land area
4,569,708
12.8% of total land area
-4.8%
-5.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 4,687,135
13.2% of total land area
4,477,001
12.6% of total land area
-4.5%
-5.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Illinois

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 2,069,249,530 1,946,338,192
-5.9%
1,949,340,453
-5.8%
Trees per Person 156 105
-32.3%
105
-32.2%
Volume (cu ft) 7,244,662,214 7,572,119,574
4.5%
6,759,266,841
-6.7%
Growth (cu ft/year) 226,000,000 30,000,000
-86.7%
41,000,000
-81.9%
Removals (cu ft/year) 33,000,000 35,000,000
6.1%
133,000,000
303.0%
Growth to removal ratio 6.8 0.9
-87.5%
0.3
-95.5%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Illinois

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 109,816,001
39.8%
110,480,287
40.8%
0.6%
101,166,508
39.1%
-7.9%
Roots (metric ton) 21,093,947
7.6%
21,204,308
7.8%
0.5%
19,415,294
7.5%
-8.0%
Dead trees (metric ton) 21,159,746
7.7%
20,526,117
7.6%
-3.0%
19,410,539
7.5%
-8.3%
Forest floor (metric ton) 15,962,249
5.8%
20,800,367
7.7%
30.3%
19,536,453
7.5%
22.4%
Soil (metric ton) 107,833,716
39.1%
97,500,339
36.0%
-9.6%
99,460,384
38.4%
-7.8%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 275,865,660
100%
270,511,417
100%
-1.9%
258,989,178
100%
-6.1%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 35.6 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Illinois Northern
States
Illinois Population 13,002,420 14,533,474
11.8%
11.9%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 4,797,669
13.5% of total land area
4,581,763
12.9% of total land area
-4.5%
-3.5%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 4,687,135
13.2% of total land area
4,505,041
12.7% of total land area
-3.9%
-3.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Illinois

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 2,069,249,530 1,869,990,585
-9.6%
1,870,178,433
-9.6%
Trees per Person 159 129
-19.1%
129
-19.1%
Volume (cu ft) 7,244,662,214 7,895,296,165
9.0%
7,284,014,527
0.5%
Growth (cu ft/year) 226,000,000 104,000,000
-54.0%
46,000,000
-79.6%
Removals (cu ft/year) 33,000,000 35,000,000
6.1%
71,000,000
115.2%
Growth to removal ratio 6.8 3.0
-56.6%
0.6
-90.5%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Illinois

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 109,816,001
39.8%
115,067,336
41.4%
4.8%
106,318,849
40.3%
-3.2%
Roots (metric ton) 21,093,947
7.6%
22,071,988
7.9%
4.6%
20,398,903
7.7%
-3.3%
Dead trees (metric ton) 21,159,746
7.7%
21,244,892
7.6%
0.4%
19,964,527
7.6%
-5.6%
Forest floor (metric ton) 15,962,249
5.8%
19,828,135
7.1%
24.2%
19,583,209
7.4%
22.7%
Soil (metric ton) 107,833,716
39.1%
99,575,220
35.8%
-7.7%
97,583,240
37.0%
-9.5%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 275,865,660
100%
277,787,571
100%
0.7%
263,848,729
100%
-4.4%

 Scenarios

There are six scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime.

Moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio)

High greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate gains in income

Low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption.

Harvest Regimes

-C
Scenario projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels
-BIO
Harvest will increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy production

Illinois Population by Scenario

Drivers of Forest Change

A large component of forest change will be the result of normal forest growth, aging, natural regeneration, and species succession. In addition, we expect that a range of external forces will also drive forest change:

  • Population increases will cause millions of acres of forest land to be converted to urban and other land uses.
  • Economic conditions will affect forest products consumption, production, and harvesting rates.
  • The spread of invasive species will exacerbate the effects of other disturbances on forest ecosystems.
  • Changes in population, economic activity, energy consumption, and energy production will affect future climate change.
  • Climate change will, in turn, affect dynamics within forested ecosystems, including patterns of vegetation growth and species succession.

Illinois Future Forest Attributes


Area of forestland for Illinois


Legend
A1B-C
A1B-BIO
A2-C
A2-BIO
B2-C
B2-BIO

Scenario 2020 2040 2060 % Change

Area of forestland under A1B-C in 2060



Rank State Value