Change by Scenario for Iowa

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 35.8 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Iowa Northern
States
Iowa Population 3,005,121 3,612,901
20.2%
25.6%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 3,032,806
8.5% of total land area
2,915,080
8.1% of total land area
-3.9%
-6.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 2,969,868
8.3% of total land area
2,854,556
8% of total land area
-3.9%
-6.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Iowa

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 1,134,248,011 1,179,435,155
4.0%
1,031,579,129
-9.1%
Trees per Person 377 326
-13.5%
286
-24.4%
Volume (cu ft) 3,026,701,774 3,464,659,804
14.5%
2,744,838,143
-9.3%
Growth (cu ft/year) 103,000,000 31,000,000
-69.9%
100,000,000
-2.9%
Removals (cu ft/year) 35,000,000 44,000,000
25.7%
164,000,000
368.6%
Growth to removal ratio 2.9 0.7
-76.1%
0.6
-79.3%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Iowa

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 54,079,099
35.0%
60,449,759
38.9%
11.8%
48,028,066
34.8%
-11.2%
Roots (metric ton) 10,341,344
6.7%
11,572,057
7.4%
11.9%
9,179,437
6.6%
-11.2%
Dead trees (metric ton) 11,237,027
7.3%
11,695,889
7.5%
4.1%
9,970,846
7.2%
-11.3%
Forest floor (metric ton) 9,922,662
6.4%
11,240,229
7.2%
13.3%
10,151,162
7.3%
2.3%
Soil (metric ton) 68,898,657
44.6%
60,423,397
38.9%
-12.3%
60,830,692
44.0%
-11.7%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 154,478,790
100%
155,381,330
100%
0.6%
138,160,203
100%
-10.6%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 35.8 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Iowa Northern
States
Iowa Population 3,065,423 4,081,662
33.2%
39.1%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 3,032,806
8.5% of total land area
2,952,525
8.2% of total land area
-2.6%
-5.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 2,969,868
8.3% of total land area
2,891,703
8.1% of total land area
-2.6%
-5.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Iowa

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 1,134,248,011 1,179,063,916
4.0%
1,062,140,598
-6.4%
Trees per Person 370 289
-21.9%
260
-29.7%
Volume (cu ft) 3,026,701,774 3,805,638,228
25.7%
2,981,253,000
-1.5%
Growth (cu ft/year) 103,000,000 66,000,000
-35.9%
68,000,000
-34.0%
Removals (cu ft/year) 35,000,000 42,000,000
20.0%
116,000,000
231.4%
Growth to removal ratio 2.9 1.6
-46.6%
0.6
-80.1%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Iowa

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 54,079,099
35.0%
64,074,303
39.8%
18.5%
52,661,221
36.2%
-2.6%
Roots (metric ton) 10,341,344
6.7%
12,265,654
7.6%
18.6%
10,071,088
6.9%
-2.6%
Dead trees (metric ton) 11,237,027
7.3%
12,336,033
7.7%
9.8%
10,686,169
7.4%
-4.9%
Forest floor (metric ton) 9,922,662
6.4%
11,250,579
7.0%
13.4%
10,176,881
7.0%
2.6%
Soil (metric ton) 68,898,657
44.6%
61,042,418
37.9%
-11.4%
61,769,321
42.5%
-10.3%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 154,478,790
100%
160,968,986
100%
4.2%
145,364,679
100%
-5.9%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 35.8 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Iowa Northern
States
Iowa Population 2,996,058 3,208,652
7.1%
11.9%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 3,032,806
8.5% of total land area
2,976,828
8.3% of total land area
-1.8%
-3.5%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 2,969,868
8.3% of total land area
2,915,121
8.1% of total land area
-1.8%
-3.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Iowa

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 1,134,248,011 1,208,731,610
6.6%
1,094,745,773
-3.5%
Trees per Person 379 377
-0.5%
341
-9.9%
Volume (cu ft) 3,026,701,774 3,908,750,183
29.1%
3,373,838,528
11.5%
Growth (cu ft/year) 103,000,000 79,000,000
-23.3%
65,000,000
-36.9%
Removals (cu ft/year) 35,000,000 68,000,000
94.3%
96,000,000
174.3%
Growth to removal ratio 2.9 1.2
-60.5%
0.7
-77.0%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Iowa

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 54,079,099
35.0%
64,172,966
39.5%
18.7%
57,725,843
37.9%
6.7%
Roots (metric ton) 10,341,344
6.7%
12,282,187
7.6%
18.8%
11,038,677
7.2%
6.7%
Dead trees (metric ton) 11,237,027
7.3%
12,336,675
7.6%
9.8%
11,444,908
7.5%
1.8%
Forest floor (metric ton) 9,922,662
6.4%
11,139,049
6.9%
12.3%
10,767,741
7.1%
8.5%
Soil (metric ton) 68,898,657
44.6%
62,421,647
38.4%
-9.4%
61,343,047
40.3%
-11.0%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 154,478,790
100%
162,352,523
100%
5.1%
152,320,216
100%
-1.4%

 Scenarios

There are six scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime.

Moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio)

High greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate gains in income

Low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption.

Harvest Regimes

-C
Scenario projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels
-BIO
Harvest will increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy production

Iowa Population by Scenario

Drivers of Forest Change

A large component of forest change will be the result of normal forest growth, aging, natural regeneration, and species succession. In addition, we expect that a range of external forces will also drive forest change:

  • Population increases will cause millions of acres of forest land to be converted to urban and other land uses.
  • Economic conditions will affect forest products consumption, production, and harvesting rates.
  • The spread of invasive species will exacerbate the effects of other disturbances on forest ecosystems.
  • Changes in population, economic activity, energy consumption, and energy production will affect future climate change.
  • Climate change will, in turn, affect dynamics within forested ecosystems, including patterns of vegetation growth and species succession.

Iowa Future Forest Attributes


Area of forestland for Iowa


Legend
A1B-C
A1B-BIO
A2-C
A2-BIO
B2-C
B2-BIO

Scenario 2020 2040 2060 % Change

Area of forestland under A1B-C in 2060



Rank State Value