Change by Scenario for Delaware

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 1.3 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Delaware Northern
States
Delaware Population 884,007 1,308,587
48.0%
25.6%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 352,167
27.1% of total land area
287,222
22.1% of total land area
-18.4%
-6.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 344,493
26.5% of total land area
280,811
21.6% of total land area
-18.5%
-6.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Delaware

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 234,714,876 184,479,258
-21.4%
166,699,819
-29.0%
Trees per Person 266 141
-46.9%
127
-52.0%
Volume (cu ft) 810,153,663 697,435,351
-13.9%
644,493,293
-20.4%
Growth (cu ft/year) 31,000,000 -1,000,000
-103.2%
7,000,000
-77.4%
Removals (cu ft/year) 7,000,000 6,000,000
-14.3%
16,000,000
128.6%
Growth to removal ratio 4.4 -0.2
-103.8%
0.4
-90.1%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Delaware

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 10,972,093
42.3%
9,243,528
42.4%
-15.8%
8,518,839
39.9%
-22.4%
Roots (metric ton) 2,152,170
8.3%
1,812,368
8.3%
-15.8%
1,670,933
7.8%
-22.4%
Dead trees (metric ton) 1,696,225
6.5%
1,407,328
6.5%
-17.0%
1,423,127
6.7%
-16.1%
Forest floor (metric ton) 1,533,467
5.9%
1,250,965
5.7%
-18.4%
1,507,426
7.1%
-1.7%
Soil (metric ton) 9,588,782
37.0%
8,077,931
37.1%
-15.8%
8,247,959
38.6%
-14.0%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 25,942,738
100%
21,792,119
100%
-16.0%
21,368,283
100%
-17.6%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 1.3 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Delaware Northern
States
Delaware Population 901,748 1,478,371
63.9%
39.1%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 352,167
27.1% of total land area
284,782
21.9% of total land area
-19.1%
-5.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 344,493
26.5% of total land area
278,595
21.4% of total land area
-19.1%
-5.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Delaware

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 234,714,876 167,304,049
-28.7%
164,084,133
-30.1%
Trees per Person 260 113
-56.5%
111
-57.4%
Volume (cu ft) 810,153,663 725,609,940
-10.4%
678,090,990
-16.3%
Growth (cu ft/year) 31,000,000 6,000,000
-80.6%
4,000,000
-87.1%
Removals (cu ft/year) 7,000,000 6,000,000
-14.3%
14,000,000
100.0%
Growth to removal ratio 4.4 1.0
-77.4%
0.3
-93.5%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Delaware

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 10,972,093
42.3%
9,490,270
43.1%
-13.5%
8,833,044
41.2%
-19.5%
Roots (metric ton) 2,152,170
8.3%
1,857,535
8.4%
-13.7%
1,733,661
8.1%
-19.4%
Dead trees (metric ton) 1,696,225
6.5%
1,425,682
6.5%
-15.9%
1,425,228
6.6%
-16.0%
Forest floor (metric ton) 1,533,467
5.9%
1,278,903
5.8%
-16.6%
1,311,254
6.1%
-14.5%
Soil (metric ton) 9,588,782
37.0%
7,954,552
36.1%
-17.0%
8,151,694
38.0%
-15.0%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 25,942,738
100%
22,006,941
100%
-15.2%
21,454,881
100%
-17.3%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 1.3 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Delaware Northern
States
Delaware Population 881,340 1,162,168
31.9%
11.9%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 352,167
27.1% of total land area
310,948
23.9% of total land area
-11.7%
-3.5%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 344,493
26.5% of total land area
304,033
23.4% of total land area
-11.7%
-3.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Delaware

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 234,714,876 199,719,100
-14.9%
194,352,794
-17.2%
Trees per Person 266 172
-35.5%
167
-37.2%
Volume (cu ft) 810,153,663 762,402,614
-5.9%
759,698,299
-6.2%
Growth (cu ft/year) 31,000,000 3,000,000
-90.3%
14,000,000
-54.8%
Removals (cu ft/year) 7,000,000 5,000,000
-28.6%
11,000,000
57.1%
Growth to removal ratio 4.4 0.6
-86.5%
1.3
-71.3%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Delaware

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 10,972,093
42.3%
10,232,456
42.5%
-6.7%
10,156,017
42.1%
-7.4%
Roots (metric ton) 2,152,170
8.3%
1,997,578
8.3%
-7.2%
1,990,648
8.2%
-7.5%
Dead trees (metric ton) 1,696,225
6.5%
1,575,797
6.5%
-7.1%
1,580,563
6.5%
-6.8%
Forest floor (metric ton) 1,533,467
5.9%
1,521,338
6.3%
-0.8%
1,519,705
6.3%
-0.9%
Soil (metric ton) 9,588,782
37.0%
8,758,008
36.4%
-8.7%
8,904,443
36.9%
-7.1%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 25,942,738
100%
24,085,178
100%
-7.2%
24,151,376
100%
-6.9%

 Scenarios

There are six scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime.

Moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio)

High greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate gains in income

Low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption.

Harvest Regimes

-C
Scenario projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels
-BIO
Harvest will increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy production

Delaware Population by Scenario

Drivers of Forest Change

A large component of forest change will be the result of normal forest growth, aging, natural regeneration, and species succession. In addition, we expect that a range of external forces will also drive forest change:

  • Population increases will cause millions of acres of forest land to be converted to urban and other land uses.
  • Economic conditions will affect forest products consumption, production, and harvesting rates.
  • The spread of invasive species will exacerbate the effects of other disturbances on forest ecosystems.
  • Changes in population, economic activity, energy consumption, and energy production will affect future climate change.
  • Climate change will, in turn, affect dynamics within forested ecosystems, including patterns of vegetation growth and species succession.

Delaware Future Forest Attributes


Area of forestland for Delaware


Legend
A1B-C
A1B-BIO
A2-C
A2-BIO
B2-C
B2-BIO

Scenario 2020 2040 2060 % Change

Area of forestland under A1B-C in 2060



Rank State Value