Change by Scenario for Connecticut

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 3.1 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Connecticut Northern
States
Connecticut Population 3,534,993 4,280,815
21.1%
25.6%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 1,724,375
55.6% of total land area
1,537,238
49.6% of total land area
-10.9%
-6.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 1,689,305
54.5% of total land area
1,505,004
48.5% of total land area
-10.9%
-6.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Connecticut

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 782,498,907 609,957,994
-22.0%
601,935,674
-23.1%
Trees per Person 221 142
-35.6%
141
-36.5%
Volume (cu ft) 3,792,572,237 3,622,418,254
-4.5%
3,538,564,603
-6.7%
Growth (cu ft/year) 79,000,000 -39,000,000
-149.4%
-11,000,000
-113.9%
Removals (cu ft/year) 51,000,000 3,000,000
-94.1%
12,000,000
-76.5%
Growth to removal ratio 1.5 -13.0
-939.2%
-0.9
-159.2%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Connecticut

Scenario A1B-C A1B-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 55,518,642
44.4%
53,391,871
44.0%
-3.8%
52,146,071
43.6%
-6.1%
Roots (metric ton) 10,825,361
8.7%
10,420,624
8.6%
-3.7%
10,176,619
8.5%
-6.0%
Dead trees (metric ton) 8,117,538
6.5%
7,641,994
6.3%
-5.9%
7,490,431
6.3%
-7.7%
Forest floor (metric ton) 7,532,573
6.0%
8,146,633
6.7%
8.2%
8,163,577
6.8%
8.4%
Soil (metric ton) 43,148,363
34.5%
41,809,648
34.4%
-3.1%
41,701,639
34.8%
-3.4%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 125,142,477
100%
121,410,771
100%
-3.0%
119,678,337
100%
-4.4%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 3.1 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Connecticut Northern
States
Connecticut Population 3,605,932 4,836,234
34.1%
39.1%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 1,724,375
55.6% of total land area
1,512,456
48.8% of total land area
-12.3%
-5.4%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 1,689,305
54.5% of total land area
1,480,594
47.8% of total land area
-12.4%
-5.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Connecticut

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 782,498,907 637,449,647
-18.5%
581,191,980
-25.7%
Trees per Person 217 132
-39.3%
120
-44.6%
Volume (cu ft) 3,792,572,237 3,402,875,016
-10.3%
3,523,747,890
-7.1%
Growth (cu ft/year) 79,000,000 -32,000,000
-140.5%
-7,000,000
-108.9%
Removals (cu ft/year) 51,000,000 4,000,000
-92.2%
9,000,000
-82.4%
Growth to removal ratio 1.5 -8.0
-616.5%
-0.8
-150.2%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Connecticut

Scenario A2-C A2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 55,518,642
44.4%
50,499,107
43.4%
-9.0%
50,675,473
43.0%
-8.7%
Roots (metric ton) 10,825,361
8.7%
9,820,650
8.4%
-9.3%
9,925,266
8.4%
-8.3%
Dead trees (metric ton) 8,117,538
6.5%
7,287,021
6.3%
-10.2%
7,328,838
6.2%
-9.7%
Forest floor (metric ton) 7,532,573
6.0%
7,891,784
6.8%
4.8%
8,188,598
6.9%
8.7%
Soil (metric ton) 43,148,363
34.5%
40,793,098
35.1%
-5.5%
41,781,455
35.4%
-3.2%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 125,142,477
100%
116,291,661
100%
-7.1%
117,899,630
100%
-5.8%

Population and Land Use Total Land Area: 3.1 million acres

  Change
2010 - 2060
  2010 2060 Connecticut Northern
States
Connecticut Population 3,524,330 3,801,835
7.9%
11.9%
Area of Forest Land (Acres) 1,724,375
55.6% of total land area
1,626,032
52.5% of total land area
-5.7%
-3.5%
Area of Timberland (Acres) 1,689,305
54.5% of total land area
1,592,583
51.4% of total land area
-5.7%
-3.5%

Volume, Growth, and Removals on Timberland in Connecticut

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
  2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Number of Trees 782,498,907 661,733,635
-15.4%
691,963,251
-11.6%
Trees per Person 222 174
-21.6%
182
-18.0%
Volume (cu ft) 3,792,572,237 3,675,552,407
-3.1%
3,479,627,851
-8.3%
Growth (cu ft/year) 79,000,000 11,000,000
-86.1%
-1,000,000
-101.3%
Removals (cu ft/year) 51,000,000 3,000,000
-94.1%
11,000,000
-78.4%
Growth to removal ratio 1.5 3.7
136.7%
-0.1
-105.9%

Carbon Stored on Forest Land in Connecticut

Scenario B2-C B2-BIO
Carbon Pool 2010 2060 Change 2060 Change
Live trees (metric ton) 55,518,642
44.4%
53,146,289
42.7%
-4.3%
51,308,060
42.2%
-7.6%
Roots (metric ton) 10,825,361
8.7%
10,415,333
8.4%
-3.8%
10,006,631
8.2%
-7.6%
Dead trees (metric ton) 8,117,538
6.5%
7,725,212
6.2%
-4.8%
7,519,366
6.2%
-7.4%
Forest floor (metric ton) 7,532,573
6.0%
8,816,422
7.1%
17.0%
8,340,889
6.9%
10.7%
Soil (metric ton) 43,148,363
34.5%
44,365,592
35.6%
2.8%
44,330,662
36.5%
2.7%
All Carbon Pools (metric ton) 125,142,477
100%
124,468,849
100%
-0.5%
121,505,607
100%
-2.9%

 Scenarios

There are six scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime.

Moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio)

High greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate gains in income

Low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption.

Harvest Regimes

-C
Scenario projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels
-BIO
Harvest will increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy production

Connecticut Population by Scenario

Drivers of Forest Change

A large component of forest change will be the result of normal forest growth, aging, natural regeneration, and species succession. In addition, we expect that a range of external forces will also drive forest change:

  • Population increases will cause millions of acres of forest land to be converted to urban and other land uses.
  • Economic conditions will affect forest products consumption, production, and harvesting rates.
  • The spread of invasive species will exacerbate the effects of other disturbances on forest ecosystems.
  • Changes in population, economic activity, energy consumption, and energy production will affect future climate change.
  • Climate change will, in turn, affect dynamics within forested ecosystems, including patterns of vegetation growth and species succession.

Connecticut Future Forest Attributes


Area of forestland for Connecticut


Legend
A1B-C
A1B-BIO
A2-C
A2-BIO
B2-C
B2-BIO

Scenario 2020 2040 2060 % Change

Area of forestland under A1B-C in 2060



Rank State Value