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More on LANDIS-II

LANDIS-II models forest succession, disturbance (including fire, wind, harvesting, insects, global change), and seed dispersal across large (>1 million ha) landscapes. 

Featured Publication

Gustafson, E.J.; Shvidenko, A.Z.; Sturtevant, B.R.; Scheller, R.M. 2010. Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia. Ecological Applications 20(3):700-715.

Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia

[photo:]   Lake Baikai, Siberia by Eric GustafsonResearch Issue

Multiple global changes such as timber harvest of previously unexploited areas and climate change will undoubtedly affect the composition and spatial distribution of boreal forests, which will in turn affect the ability of these forests to sequester carbon.  To reliably predict future states of the boreal forest it is necessary to understand the complex interactions among forest regenerative processes (succession), natural disturbances (e.g., fire, wind and insects) and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., timber harvest). 

Our Research

We used a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to study the relative effects of climate change, timber harvesting and insect outbreaks on forest composition, biomass (carbon) and landscape pattern on a 316,527 ha landscape in south-central Siberia. 

Expected Outcomes

Knowledge of the interactions of climate change and natural disturbances in Siberia will increase the reliability of global carbon accounting and provide insight to managers of boreal forests in Asia.

Research Results

Our results show that timber harvest is the global change that will have the most profound impact on forest composition and pattern.  The effect of climate is also significant, but the indirect effect of a new insect defoliator is more significant than direct climate effects on productivity, competition and fire.

Shvidenko, Anatoly Z.; Gustafson, Eric; McGuire, A. David ; Kharuk, Vjacheslav I.; Schepaschenko, Dmitry G.; Shugart, Herman H.; Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Vygodskaya, Natalia N.; Onuchin, Alexander A.; Hayes, Daniel J.; McCallum, Ian ; Maksyutov, Shamil; Mukhortova, Ludmila V.; Soja, Amber J.; Belelli-Marchesini, Luca; Kurbatova, Julia A.; Oltchev, Alexander V.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Shuman, Jacquelyn K.  2012.  Terrestrial ecosystems and their change.  Chapter 6 in: Groisman P.Y.; Gutman, G. (editors), Environmental Changes in. Siberia: Regional Changes and their Global Consequences.  Springer.

Gustafson, E.J.; Shvidenko, A.Z.; Scheller, R.M.  2011.  Effectiveness of forest management strategies to mitigate effects of global change in south central Siberia.  Canadian Journal of Forest Research 41:1405–1421. 

Gustafson, E.J.; Sturtevant, B.R.; Shvidenko, A.Z.; Scheller, R.M.  2011.  Using landscape disturbance and succession models to support forest management.  Pages 99-118 in: Chao Li, R. Lafortezza and J. Chen (eds).  Landscape ecology in forest management and conservation.  Jointly published by HEP and Springer, Beijing and Berlin.

Gustafson, E.J.; Shvidenko, A.Z.; Sturtevant, B.R.; Scheller, R.M.  2010.  Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia.  Ecological Applications 20(3):700-715.

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Last Modified: April 1, 2015