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Northern Research Station
One Gifford Pinchot Drive
Madison, WI 53726
(608) 231-9318
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You are here: NRS Home / Research Programs /Forest Disturbance Processes /Climate Change and Events / Landscape Ecological Modeling / A Spatially Explicit Cellular Model of Species Colonization - SHIFT
Forest Disturbance Processes

A Spatially Explicit Cellular Model of Species Colonization - SHIFT

[image:]  Shift Model screen. Research Issue

Our research on modeling tree species under various scenarios of climate change predicts potential suitable habitat using the DISTRIB Model. However, DISTRIB does not explicitly take into account the time to colonize a patch, nor the fragmented nature of current landscapes. For these, we need a cellular model that simulates migration through time and space.

Our Research

We have developed a spatially explicit cellular model that calculates colonization probability based on the abundance of the species and its habitat quality as well as the distance between occupied and unoccupied cells. The probability that a cell will be colonized also depends on stochasticity. SHIFT thus enables us to more realistically predict the colonization of potential habitats by tree species under changed climate by taking into account the current fragmented and degraded habitats by the year 2100.
We have run SHIFT on some species to predict their colonization potential in Ohio and the Eastern U.S for different climate (GCM) scenarios at a resolution of 1 km. SHIFT is computationally very intensive. We combine the outputs of DISTRIB and SHIFT to provide more realistic maps of potential species colonization under future climates.
  

Research Results

Research Publications

Iverson, Louis R., Schwartz, M.W., Prasad, Anantha M. 2004. Potential colonization of newly available tree-species habitat under climate change: an analysis for five eastern US species. Landscape Ecology. 19: 787-799.

Iverson, Louis R., Schwartz, M.W., Prasad, Anantha M. 2004. How fast and far might tree species migrate in the eastern United States due to climate change? Global Ecology and Biogeography. 13: 209-219.

Schwartz, M. W., L. R. Iverson, and A. M. Prasad. 2001. Predicting the potential future distribution of four tree species in Ohio, USA, using current habitat availability and climatic forcing. Ecosystems 4:568-581.

Iverson, L. R. Prasad A. M. and M. W. Schwartz. 1999. Modeling potential future individual tree-species distributions in the Eastern United States under a climate change scenario: a case study with Pinus virginiana. Ecological Modelling 115:77-93.

Research Participants

Principal Investigators

  • Louis Iverson, USDA Forest Service- Northern Research Station Research Landscape Ecologist
  • Anantha Prasad, USDA Forest Service- Northern Research Station Ecologist
  • Matthew Peters, USDA Forest Service- Northern Research Station GIS Analyst

Research Partner

 

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Last Modified: 10/21/2010

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