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Eastern Area Modeling Consortium

[photo:] Need Description. [photo:] Need Description [photo:] Smoke from low-intensity prescribed burn interferes with traffic. [photo:] Predicted changes (contours) in the average length (days) of fire-weather events in the U.S. having Haines Index values greater than or equal to 5 (an indication of potential extreme fire behavior) between projected future climate conditions and observed current climate conditions based on coupled global and regional climate simulations.  Color shading indicates changes in standard deviation.

[image:] Artwork that represents Eastern Area Modeling Consortioum

The Eastern Area Modeling Consortium (EAMC) is one of five consortia members of the national Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke (FCAMMS) established in 2001 by the U.S. National Fire Plan.  The EAMC is a multi-agency, informal coalition of researchers, fire managers, air-quality mangers, and natural resource managers at the Federal, State, and local levels.  This coalition works together to identify fire research needs, conduct fire-related scientific studies, develop products, and transfer new scientific knowledge and technology related to fire-weather dynamics, air-quality impacts, and fire-atmosphere interactions to serve the needs of the fire management community, air resource managers, scientists, and policymakers.

About EAMC

Objectives

The research and development objectives of the EAMC are guided by the USDA Forest Service’s Wildland Fire and Fuels Research and Development Strategic Plan.  The EAMC works to address many of the research and development needs within three areas of the National Strategic Plan:   Core Fire Science, Ecological and Environmental Fire Science, and Knowledge and Tool Delivery.   More specifically, the objectives of the EAMC’s research and product development program include the following activities:

  1. Improving our understanding of the fundamental, multi-scale, physical processes that govern fire behavior, including fire-fuel-atmosphere interactions and dynamics in complex environments.
  2. Assessing how larger scale spatial and temporal processes such as regional climate patterns and variability influence fire behavior.
  3. Improving the scientific basis for new and improved fire danger assessments, including critical atmospheric boundary-layer and mesoscale processes associated with fire-weather development and evolution.
  4. Developing information necessary to predict and model fire effects on air quality, includingsmoke transport.
  5. Quantifying and modeling interactions among fire regimes, weather, and climate variability.
  6. Using increased knowledge of fire, weather, and climate interactions with fuels and other factors to develop new systems for risk assessment and predicting fire behavior, fire danger, and fire severity

Contact Us

Telephone: 517-355-7740

Research Questions

Website Questions

Weather/Air-Quality Products

Currently, the Eastern Area Modeling Consortium provides weather maps, time series, smoke transport and dispersion simulations, and location-specific weather predictions for use with Behave or other fire behavior systems. Maps show current and future weather patterns over various regions of the United States. Time series products indicate how conditions are likely to change at a given location over a 48 hour period. Maps and time series are available for specific weather variables or indicators. Smoke transport and dispersion simulations use the BlueSky modeling framework and show expected surface concentrations of smoke from prescribed and wildland fires.

Publications

Clements, C. B., B. E. Potter, and S. Zhong.  2006.  In situ measurements of water vapor, heat, and CO2 fluxes within a prescribed grass fire.  International Journal of Wildland Fire 15:299-306.

Clements, C. B., S. Zhong, S. Goodrick, J. Li, B. E. Potter, X. Bian, W. E. Heilman, J. J. Charney, R. Perna, M. Jang, D. Lee, M. Patel, S. Street, and G. Aumann.  2007.  Observing the dynamics of wildland grass fires: FireFlux – A field validation experiment.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88:1369-1382.

Potter, B. E., N. K. Larkin, and N. Nikolov.  2006.  Smoke, fire, and weather: What Forest Service research is doing to help.  Fire Management Today 66(3):12-16.

Winkler, J. A., B. E. Potter, D. F. Wilhelm, R. P. Shadbolt, K. Piromsopa, and X. Bian.  2007.  Climatological and statistical characteristics of the Haines Index for North America.  International Journal of Wildland Fire 16:139-152.

Potter, B. E., J. A. Winkler, D. F. Wilhelm, and R. P. Shadbolt.  2007.  Computing the low elevation Haines Index.  Fire Management Today 67(1):40-43.

Potter, B. E., J. A. Winkler, D. F. Wilhelm, R. P. Shadbolt, and X. Bian.  2007.  Computing the low elevation variant of the Haines Index for fire weather forecasts.  Weather and Forecasting. (Accepted)

Zimet T., J. E. Martin, and B. E. Potter.  2007.  The influence of an upper level frontal zone on the Mack Lake wildfire environment.  Meteorological Applications 14:131-147.

Heilman, W. E., and X. Bian.  2007.  Combining turbulent kinetic energy and Haines Index predictions for fire-weather assessments.  2nd Fire Behavior and Fuels Conference, 26-30 March 2007, Destin, FL.  Rocky Mountain Research Station, RMRS-P-46CD.

Charney, J., X. Bian, W. E. Heilman, and L. Fusina.  2007.  The potential impact of smoke from prescribed burns in southern Missouri.  2nd Fire Behavior and Fuels Conference, 26-30 March 2007, Destin, FL, International Association of Wildland Fire.  p. 19.  (Abstract)

Clements, C. B., and S. Zhong.  2007.  Plume energetics and dynamics of grass fires.  2nd Fire Behavior and Fuels Conference, 26-30 March 2007, Destin, FL, International Association of Wildland Fire.  p. 20.  (Abstract)

In, H.-J., D. W. Byun, R. J. Park, N.-K. Moon, S. Kim, and S. Zhong.  2007.  Impact of transboundary transport of carbonaceous aerosols on the regional air quality in the United States: A case study of the South American wildland fire of May 1998.  Journal of Geophysical Research 112:D07201, doi:10.1029/2006JD007544.

Kim, H.-C., D. W. Byun, S.-T. Kim, W. E. Heilman, J. J. Charney, and X. Bian.  2007.   Implementation of satellite-detected wildland and prescribed fire emissions in daily air quality forecast systems. EastFIRE 2007 Conference, 5-8 June, 2007, Fairfax, VA.  [On CD-ROM]

Heilman, W. E.  2007.  Overview of the national Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke (FCAMMS).  EastFIRE 2007 Conference, 5-8 June, 2007, Fairfax, VA.  [On CD-ROM]

Heilman, W. E., and X. Bian.  2007.  Combined Haines Index and turbulent kinetic energy patterns and trends over the northeastern U.S.  EastFIRE 2007 Conference, 5-8 June, 2007, Fairfax, VA.  [On CD-ROM]

Hom, J., W. Heilman, K. Clark, X. Bian, N. Skowronski, S. Van Tuyl, J. Cole, J. Charney, and D. Robinson.  2007.  Implementing a graphical and predictive national fire danger rating system for New Jersey.  EastFIRE 2007 Conference, 5-8 June, 2007, Fairfax, VA.  [On CD-ROM]

Goodrick, S., P. Cunningham, C. Clements, S. Zhong, X. Bian, and W. Heilman.  2007.  Numerical simulations of the FireFlux field experiment.  EastFIRE 2007 Conference, 5-8 June, 2007, Fairfax, VA.  [On CD-ROM]

Clements, C., S. Zhong, X. Bian, and W. Heilman.  2007.  Fire-induced winds and turbulence observed during the FireFlux experiment.  EastFIRE 2007 Conference, 5-8 June, 2007, Fairfax, VA.  [On CD-ROM]

Charney, J.  2007.  The impact of atmospheric conditions aloft on fire weather and fire behavior prediction in the eastern United States.   EastFIRE 2007 Conference, 5-8 June, 2007, Fairfax, VA.  [On CD-ROM]

Charney, J., M. Kiefer, and Y. Lin.  2007.  Simulations of two-dimensional dry convective plume modes.  EastFIRE 2007 Conference, 5-8 June, 2007, Fairfax, VA.  [On CD-ROM]

Charney, J., and D. Keyser.  2007.  Objective boundary detection in the eastern United States – sea breeze and coastal fronts, and back-door and side-door cold fronts.  EastFIRE 2007 Conference, 5-8 June, 2007, Fairfax, VA.  [On CD-ROM]

Bian. X., W. Heilman, J. Charney, S. Zhong, and W.-Q. Yao.  2007.  Using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to predict microscale smoke transport and dispersion from wildland and prescribed fires.  EastFIRE 2007 Conference, 5-8 June, 2007, Fairfax, VA.  [On CD-ROM]

Byun, D. W, H.-C. Kim, H.-J. In, S.-T. Kim, C.-K. Song, R. Park, and W. Heilman.  2006.   Process analysis and mass budget analysis of the effects of long-range transported forest fire plumes on regional air quality.  3rd International Fire Ecology and Management Congress, 16-19 November 2006, San Diego, CA.

Kim, H.-C., D. W. Byun, S.-T. Kim, W. E. Heilman, J. J. Charney, and X. Bian.  2006.  Coupling CMAQ with BlueSky and satellite-derived emissions to assess fire impacts on air quality.  3rd International Fire Ecology and Management Congress, 16-19 November 2006, San Diego, CA.

Clements, C. B., S. Zhong, S. Goodrick, X. Bian, B. E. Potter, W. Heilman, J. Charney, R. Perna, M. Jang, D. Lee, M. Patel, S. Street, S. Krueger, J. Li, and G. Aumann.  2006.  Observing the dynamics of wildland grass fires: FireFlux – A field validation experiment.  3rd International Fire Ecology and Management Congress, 16-19 November 2006, San Diego, CA.

Bian, X.  2006.  Flux profile relationships derived using observations of a grass fire.  3rd International Fire Ecology and Management Congress, 16-19 November 2006, San Diego, CA.

Heilman, W., B. Potter, F. M. Fujioka, K. Zeller, G. L. Achtemeier, and A. R. Riebau.  2007.  Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke – Enhancing firefighting capability and preparedness.  In V. C. Baldwin (ed.), Accomplishing and applying National Fire Plan research and development from 2001-2005.  General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-187, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO.  p. 7-9.

Zhong, S., C. Clements, J. Li, S. DeWekker, and X. Bian.  2006.  WaShoe Zephyr – A daytime downslope wind in the lee of Sierra Nevada.  12th Conference on Mountain Meteorology, 27 August – 1 September 2006, Santa Fe, NM.  American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA.

Zhong, S., J. Li, C. D. Whiteman, and X. Bian.  2006.  High wind events in the lee of the Sierra Nevada – are they downslope windstorms.  12th Conference on Mountain Meteorology, 27 August – 1 September 2006, Santa Fe, NM.  American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA.

Zhong, S., C. Clements, G. Aumann, and B. E. Potter.  2006.  Turbulent fluxes produced by a prescribed burn of a large prairie.  27th Conference on Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 21-25 May 2006, San Diego, CA.  American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA.

Sun, R., S. K. Krueger, M. A. Zulauf, M. A. Jenkins, and J. J. Charney.  2006.  Wildfire evolution in the convective boundary layer.  17th Symposium on Boundary Layers and Turbulence, 21-25 May 2006, San Diego, CA.  American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA.

Charney, J. J., and W. Mell.  2005.  The inter-comparison of LANL-FIRETEC and NIST-FDS idealized grass fire simulations.  6th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 24-27 October 2005, Canmore, Alberta, Canada.  American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA.

Kaplan, M. L., Y.-L. Lin, and C. Huang.  2005.  The development of a dynamically-based fire weather forecast index.  6th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 24-27 October 2005, Canmore, Alberta, Canada.  American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA.

Potter, B. E., J. A. Winkler, D. F. Wilhelm, and R. P. Shadbolt.  2005.  Computation of the low elevation Haines Index.  6th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 24-27 October 2005, Canmore, Alberta, Canada.  American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA.

Clements, C. B., B. E. Potter, S. Zhong, G. Aumann, M. D. Jiang, S. Street, and M. R. Patel.  2005.  Measurements of water vapor and CO2 fluxes produced by a prescribed prairie fire using a micrometeorological flux tower and tethered balloon sounding system.  6th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 24-27 October 2005, Canmore, Alberta, Canada.  American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA.

Winkler, J. A., B. E. Potter, D F. Wilhelm, R. P. Shadbolt, X. Bian, and K Piromsopa.  2005.  A climatology of the Haines Index for North America derived from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis fields.  6th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 24-27 October 2005, Canmore, Alberta, Canada.  American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA.

Sun, R. S. K. Krueger, M. A. Jenkins, W. Mell, and J. J. Charney.  2005.  An evaluation of FDS and Clark coupled wildfire model.  6th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 24-27 October 2005, Canmore, Alberta, Canada.  American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA.

Conard, S., M. Hilbruner, A. Riebau, L. Langner, F. Burch, M. Beighley, D. Weise, D. V. Sandberg, C. Edminster, W. Heilman, B. Jewell, J. Saveland, M. Miller, D. J. Parsons, A. Hoover, R. D. Ottmar, B. Potter, and L C. Brett.  2006.  Wildland fire and fuels research and development strategic plan: Meeting the needs of the present, anticipating the needs of the future.  USDA Forest Service, Research and Development, FS-854.

Zimet, T.  2004.  A model based analysis of upper-frontal processes on wildfire behavior.  Thesis, University of Wisconsin – Madison.  104 pp.

Heilman, W. E., B. E. Potter, J. J. Charney, and X. Bian.  2005.  Fire-weather and air quality research and product development in the Eastern Area Modeling Consortium.  EastFIRE Conference 2005, 11-13 May 2005, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. [On CD-ROM]

Charney, J. J., B. E. Potter, W. E. Heilman, and X. Bian.  2005.  Assessing the potential for atmospheric conditions aloft to contribute to extreme fire behavior.  EastFIRE Conference 2005, 11-13 May 2005, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. [On CD-ROM]

Charney, J. J., K. L. Clark, X. Bian, W. E. Heilman, B. E. Potter.  2005.  Evaluation of EAMC high-resolution fire-weather predictions (using surface meteorology, forest energy balance, and sodar measurements) in the New Jersey pinelands.  EastFIRE Conference 2005, 11-13 May 2005, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. [On CD-ROM]

In, H. J., S. Zhong, D. W. Byun, X. Bian, J. Charney, W. Heilman, and B. Potter.  2005.  On the accuracy of Haines Index predicted by realtime MM5 forecasts over the eastern half of the U.S.  EastFIRE Conference 2005, 11-13 May 2005, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. [On CD-ROM]

In, H. J., D. W. Byun, S. Kim, S. Zhong, X. Bian, J. J. Charney, W. E. Heilman, and B. E. Potter.  2005.  Application of BlueSky and CMAQ to investigate the impact of wildland fire on regional air quality.  EastFIRE Conference 2005, 11-13 May 2005, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. [On CD-ROM]

Hom, J., K. Clark, Y. Pan, S. V. Tuyl, N. Skowronski, and W. Heilman.  2005.  Fire research in the New Jersey Pine Barrens.  EastFIRE Conference 2005, 11-13 May 2005, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. [On CD-ROM]

Zhong, S., H. J. In, X. Bian, J. Charney, W. Heilman, and B. Potter.  2005.  Evaluation of real-time high resolution MM5 predictions over the Great Lakes region.  Weather and Forecasting 20:63-81.

Mell, W., J. J. Charney, M. A. Jenkins, P. Cheney, and J. Gould.  2005.  Numerical simulations of grassland fire behavior from the LANL – FIRETEC and NIST – WFDS models.  EastFIRE Conference 2005, 11-13 May 2005, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. [On CD-ROM]

Woodall, C. W., J. J. Charney, G. C. Liknes, and B. E. Potter.  2005.  What’s the fire danger now? Linking fuel inventories with atmospheric data.  Journal of Forestry 103:293-298.

Potter, B. E.  2005.  The role of released moisture in the atmospheric dynamics associated with wildland fires.  International Journal of Wildland Fire 14:77-84.

Charney, J. J.; Bian, X.; Potter, B. E.; Heilman, W. E. 2003. Modeling wildfire weather. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 84:1010-1011.

Charney, J. J.; Keyser, D. 2004. Using mesoscale model simulations to better understand the role of surface mixed layer dynamics in fire-atmosphere interactions. 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 12-15 January 2004, Seattle, WA, American Meteorological Society. [On CD-ROM]

Charney, J. J.; Bian, X.; Potter, B. E.; Heilman, W. E. 2003. Low level jet impacts on fire evolution in the Mack Lake and other severe wildfires. 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 16-20 November 2003, Orlando, FL, American Meteorological Society. [On CD-ROM]

Charney, J. J.; Bian, X.; Potter, B. E.; Heilman, W. E. 2003. The role of a stratospheric intrusion in the evolution of the Double Trouble State Park wildfire. 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 16-20 November 2003, Orlando, FL, American Meteorological Society. [On CD-ROM]

Chubarova, N. Y.; Prilepsky, N. G.; Uliumdzhieva, N. N.; Yurova, A. Y.; Zhmylev, P. Y.; Karpuhina, E. A.; Riebau, A. R.; Shoettle, A. W.; Musselman, R.; Potter, B. E.; Rublev, A. N. 2003. A natural fire experiment in central Russia: Meteorology, radiative and optical properties of atmosphere and resulting effects on sub-boreal forest plants. 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 16-20 November 2003, Orlando, FL, American Meteorological Society. [On CD-ROM]

Heilman, W. E.; Potter, B. E.; Charney, J. J.; Bian, X. 2003. National Fire Plan - Eastern Area Modeling Consortium: Research, product development, and partnerships. 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 16-20 November 2003, Orlando, FL, American Meteorological Society. [On CD-ROM]

Heilman, W. E.; Bian, X.; Charney, J. J.; Potter, B. E. 2003. Combining the Haines Index and turbulent kinetic energy for fire-weather predictions. 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 16-20 November 2003, Orlando, FL, American Meteorological Society. [On CD-ROM]

Jenkins, M. A.; Krueger, S. K.; Sun, R. 2003. Using a simple parcel model to investigate the Haines Index. 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 16-20 November 2003, Orlando, FL, American Meteorological Society. [On CD-ROM]

Potter, B. E. 2003. Impact of released fuel moisture on atmospheric dynamics. 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 16-20 November 2003, Orlando, FL, American Meteorological Society. [On CD-ROM]

Potter, B. E.; Goodrick, S. L.; Brown, T. J. 2003. Development of a statistical validation methodology for fire weather indices. 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 16-20 November 2003, Orlando, FL, American Meteorological Society. [On CD-ROM]

Riebau, A. R.; Fox, D. G. 2003. Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke - FCAMMS: A national paradigm for wildland fire and smoke management. 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 16-20 November 2003, Orlando, FL, American Meteorological Society. [On CD-ROM]

Sun, R.; Jenkins, M. A. 2003. Effects of near-surface atmospheric stability and moisture on wildfire behavior and consequences for Haines Index. 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 16-20 November 2003, Orlando, FL, American Meteorological Society. [On CD-ROM]

Zimet, T. K.; Martin, J. E. 2003. A model based analysis of the role of an upper-level front and stratospheric intrusion in the Mack Lake fire. 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 16-20 November 2003, Orlando, FL, American Meteorological Society. [On CD-ROM]

Jenkins, M. A.  2002.  An examination of the sensitivity of numerically simulated wildfires to low-level atmospheric stability and moisture, and the consequences for the Haines Index.  International Journal of Wildland Fire 11:213-232.

Charney J. J., S. Bian, B. E. Potter, and W. E. Heilman.  2003.  Mesoscale simulations during the Double Trouble State Park wildfire in east-central New Jersey on June 2, 2002.  10th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, 23-27 June 2003, Portland, OR, American Meteorological Society. [On CD-ROM]

Potter, B. E., D. Borsum, and D. Haines.  2002.  Keeping Haines real – or really changing Haines?  Fire Management Today 62:41-46.

Potter, B. E., and J. E. Martin.  2001.  Accuracy of 24- and 48-hour forecasts of Haines’ index.  National Weather Digest 25:38-46.

Potter, B. E.  2002.  A dynamics based view of atmosphere-fire interactions.  International Journal of Wildland Fire 11:247-255.

Potter, B. E.  2002.  Dew it! Which weather measurements are related to the occurrence of wildland fires?  Natural Inquirer 4:47-51.

Potter, B. E., and S. Goodrick. 2003.  Performance of the Haines Index during August 2000 for Montana.  4th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 13-15 November 2001, Reno, NV, American Meteorological Society.  p. 233-236.

Croft, P. J., B. Potter, and A. Reed.  2002.  The analysis of the Haines Index climatology for the eastern Unites States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.  4th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 13-15 November 2001, Reno, NV, American Meteorological Society.  p. 242-246.

Jenkins, M. A.  2002.  Coupled atmosphere-fire modeling and fire behavior sensitivity to atmospheric instability.  4th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 13-15 November 2001, Reno, NV, American Meteorological Society.  p. 43-50.

Potter, B. E.  2002.  How and why does the Haines Index work? Energy and dynamics considerations.  4th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 13-15 November 2001, Reno, NV, American Meteorological Society.  p. 247-253.

Croft, P. J, M. Watts, B. E. Potter, and A. Reed.  2002.  Creating a Haines Index climatology for the United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.  25th Conference on Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 20-24 May 2002, Norfolk, VA, American Meteorological Society.  p. 83.

 

Last Modified: October 8, 2014

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