Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia

Research Issue

Multiple global changes such as timber harvest of previously unexploited areas and climate change will undoubtedly affect the composition and spatial distribution of boreal forests, which will in turn affect the ability of these forests to sequester carbon.  To reliably predict future states of the boreal forest it is necessary to understand the complex interactions among forest regenerative processes (succession), natural disturbances (e.g., fire, wind and insects) and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., timber harvest). 

Our Research

We use a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to study the relative effects of climate change, timber harvesting and insect outbreaks on forest composition, biomass (carbon) and landscape pattern on a 316,527 ha landscape in south-central Siberia.

Expected Outcomes

Our results show that timber harvest is the global change that will have the most profound impact on forest composition and pattern.  The effect of climate is also significant, but the indirect effect of a new insect defoliator is more significant than direct climate effects on productivity, competition and fire.

Research Results

Gustafson, E.J., A.Z. Shvidenko, R.M. Scheller.  2011.  Effectiveness of forest management strategies to mitigate effects of global change in south central Siberia.  Canadian Journal of Forest Research 41:1405–1421. 

Gustafson, E.J., B.R. Sturtevant, A.Z. Shvidenko, R.M. Scheller.  2011.  Using landscape disturbance and succession models to support forest management.  Pages 99-118 in: Chao Li, R. Lafortezza and J. Chen (eds).  Landscape ecology in forest management and conservation.  Jointly published by HEP and Springer, Beijing and Berlin.

Gustafson, Eric; Shvidenko, Anatoly D.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Scheller, Robert M. 2010. Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia. Ecological Applications. 20(3): 700-715. 

Research Participants

Principal Investigator

• Eric Gustafson, US Forest Service Northern Research Station Research Ecologist

Research Partners

• Anatoly Shvidenko, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
• Brian R. Sturtevant, , US Forest Service Northern Research Station Research Ecologist
• Robert M. Scheller, Department of Environmental Sciences and Management, Portland State University